Will Retirees Get a Refund or Owe on Their 2026 Tax Return? Five Households, Every State

Published 2026-10-09. Tax year 2026 (the return filed in early 2027).

Will a retiree get a refund or owe on the 2026 tax return?

It depends mostly on what was withheld. With 10% withheld from IRA withdrawals and pensions and nothing from Social Security, a single 67-year-old with $24,000 of Social Security and $20,000 of IRA withdrawals owes $0 of federal income tax for 2026 and gets the whole $2,000 back; the new senior deduction ($6,000) is part of why. A couple who converted $60,000 to a Roth with nothing withheld from it owes $6,077 of federal tax at filing, and a higher-income couple $16,898. With no state tax withheld, the state return adds anywhere from $0 (9 jurisdictions tax none of the five) to $13,225 (Oregon, the higher-income couple).

Run your own numbers: the 2026 tax return calculator
Free: your 2026 federal and state refund or amount owed, from the same engines. The 2026 Return Preview shows the same return line by line.

The five households

Each household's 2026 income is below; nothing else is on the return. Each takes the standard deduction. Withholding is the one assumption that decides the refund: 10% of the IRA withdrawals and of the pension, nothing from Social Security or from the Roth conversion, and no state withholding. 10% is the default federal withholding on an IRA withdrawal that is not a periodic payment (IRC §3405(b); Form W-4R); a pension's real withholding follows its Form W-4P and is taken at 10% here for simplicity; Social Security has tax withheld only if you ask for it on Form W-4V.

• H1: Single, 67: $24,000 Social Security + $20,000 IRA withdrawals. Federal tax withheld: $2,000.
• H2: Couple, 70 and 68: $45,000 Social Security + $36,000 IRA withdrawals + $24,000 pension. Federal tax withheld: $6,000.
• H3: Couple, 66 and 64: $36,000 Social Security + $24,000 IRA withdrawals + a $60,000 Roth conversion. Federal tax withheld: $2,400.
• H4: Couple, 72 and 70: $64,000 Social Security + $70,000 IRA withdrawals + $40,000 pension + $40,000 long-term gains + $15,000 dividends ($12,000 qualified) + $10,000 interest. Federal tax withheld: $11,000.
• H5: Single, 78: $30,000 Social Security + $18,000 pension + $14,000 IRA withdrawals. Federal tax withheld: $3,200.

The 2026 federal return of each household

3 of the five get a federal refund and 2 owe. The senior deduction new for 2026 (up to $6,000 for each person 65 or older, reduced by 6% of modified AGI above $75,000, $150,000 on a joint return) is $6,000 for the single 67-year-old, $12,000 for the couple aged 70 and 68, $6,000 for the couple where only one spouse is 65 or older, and $2,472 for the higher-income couple, whose AGI of $229,400 phases most of it out. Up to 85% of Social Security is taxable, depending on the other income (IRS Publication 915): $3,500 of the single 67-year-old's $24,000, $54,400 of the higher-income couple's $64,000.

Why two of them owe. The Roth conversion couple (H3) had nothing withheld from the $60,000 conversion, and the conversion is taxed as ordinary income in the year it is made. The higher-income couple (H4) is in a bracket well above 10%, and their gains, dividends and interest carry no withholding at all, so 10% from the IRA and pension covers only part of the tax. Owing at filing can also mean an underpayment penalty for the year; the estimated tax calculator shows what would have avoided it.

State income tax on each household, every state

With no state tax withheld, the state tax below is the amount owed on the state return. 9 jurisdictions tax none of the five households; 21 tax nothing for the couple aged 70 and 68. Local income taxes (county, city and school-district taxes) are not included; the local income tax study covers them.

Federal and state together: refund or amount owed, every state

The two returns together: the federal refund or balance above, less the state tax. A household that gets a federal refund can still write a check to its state.

What is not modelled

• Withholding is an assumption (above): change it and the refund or amount owed changes dollar for dollar; the tax does not.
• The underpayment penalty (Form 2210) is not figured: it depends on the 2025 return, which these households do not have.
• No state tax is withheld and no state estimated payments are made; no local income taxes are included.
• Each pension is a private pension; a public pension is exempt or partly exempt in several states. On a joint return the IRA withdrawals, pension and conversion are split evenly between the spouses for the state return.
• Most credits. The engine figures the earned income credit for a household with no qualifying children and the credit for the elderly or disabled (Schedule R) from what you entered; it does not figure the saver's credit, the child tax credit or other dependent credits, the foreign tax credit, or education, energy and other credits. A credit you qualify for lowers your tax.
• The premium tax credit (Form 8962). Marketplace (ACA) coverage and its advance payments are not reconciled; if you had marketplace coverage, your refund or balance due can differ by the whole credit.
• Self-employment, business, farm, rental and partnership income (Schedules C, E, F and SE) and the qualified business income deduction.
• Adjustments to income (Schedule 1, Part II): IRA and HSA deductions, the self-employed health insurance deduction and the rest.

Related: Ten retiree households, 51 state tax bills · The 2026 senior deduction · Social Security tax calculator · The states with no income tax

Download the data

Every return on this page, with its inputs: 2026-tax-return-for-retirees-by-state.csv · 2026-tax-return-for-retirees-by-state.json (CC0). One row per household and state: the inputs, the withholding, AGI, taxable Social Security, the standard and senior deductions, taxable income, the federal tax (Form 1040 line 24), the state tax, and the refund (+) or amount owed (−) on each return.

Questions

Will a retiree get a tax refund for 2026?

Only if more was withheld or paid than the 2026 tax. With 10% withheld from IRA withdrawals and pensions, a single 67-year-old with $24,000 of Social Security and $20,000 of IRA withdrawals owes no federal income tax and gets back $2,000; a couple aged 70 and 68 with $45,000 of Social Security, $36,000 of IRA withdrawals and a $24,000 pension gets a refund of $403.

Why would a retiree owe tax at filing for 2026?

Because too little was withheld: nothing from Social Security unless requested, nothing from a Roth conversion unless elected, and 10% from an IRA withdrawal when the tax rate is higher. A couple who converted $60,000 with nothing withheld owes $6,077 of federal tax at filing.

Does the 2026 senior deduction reduce a retiree's tax?

Yes, for each person 65 or older: up to $6,000, phased out at higher incomes. It is $6,000 for a single 67-year-old and $12,000 for a couple both over 65 in these examples.

Which states tax none of these retiree households?

9 jurisdictions: Alaska, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, Wyoming.

Sources and method

Every return was computed by the 2026 Return Preview: QuantCalc's open tax engines — federal 2.3.1 and state 1.14.2, the engines behind the federal and state tax APIs — for the 2026 tax year. Every figure on this page and in the data files was then recomputed by the C engines behind those APIs from independently written requests and agrees to the cent. The engine documentation lists the official source of every rule; the rules this study leans on:

• 26 U.S. Code § 151
• 26 U.S. Code § 86
• Publication 915, Social Security and Equivalent Railroad Retirement Benefits
• Rev. Proc. 2025-32: 2026 inflation-adjusted items (incl. One Big Beautiful Bill amendments)
• 26 U.S. Code § 3405 (withholding on pensions, annuities and IRA distributions)
• IRS: About Form W-4R, withholding on nonperiodic payments
• IRS: About Form W-4P, withholding on periodic pension and annuity payments
• IRS: About Form W-4V, voluntary withholding on Social Security
• 26 U.S. Code § 1411

Federal tax uses the IRS Tax Table below $100,000 of taxable income, as a return does. Households are illustrations, not averages. State figures for each state, with the state's own sources: state tax engine, by state.

An estimate, not tax advice. These are computed examples for the 2026 tax year from QuantCalc's open tax engines. Your own return depends on facts these examples do not include. Check any decision with your tax preparer before acting.

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  title  = {2026 Tax Return for Retirees, Every State: Refund or Amount Owed for Five Typical Households},
  author = {{QuantCalc Research}},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://quantcalc.app/research/2026-tax-return-for-retirees-by-state/},
  note   = {Accessed <date>}
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