In our 510,000-path Monte Carlo study of 30-year retirement outcomes, Texas retirees finished at 76.25% success rate (ranked #6 of 51 by success rate, #11 of 51 by lowest median lifetime state tax). Median 30-year state-tax cost: $0. Median terminal balance after 30 years: $1,020,142. No state income tax means the Roth-conversion optimization is purely federal + ACA cliff.
The TX verdict
For a retiree planning withdrawals in 2026, Texas is one of the most retirement-tax-friendly states in the U.S.. No state income tax, but high property tax at roughly 1.6% effective.
Since there is no state income tax, both pre-tax 401(k) distributions and Roth conversions cost $0 in state tax. That removes one variable from the optimization, but it does not eliminate the federal ACA cliff — your premium tax credit still depends on federal MAGI.
Worked example: $30k Roth conversion in Texas
Consider a married couple age 58 in Texas with $75,000 of taxable income, both on ACA Marketplace coverage. They want to convert $30,000 from a traditional IRA to a Roth. In Texas, the state tax on that conversion is $0 (no state income tax). But the conversion pushes their MAGI to $105,000 — over the 400% FPL cliff of $84,600. At roughly 22% federal bracket plus full ACA subsidy clawback (~$12,000), the total cost of converting $30,000 is approximately $18,600 — an effective 62.0% marginal rate. The lesson: in tax-free states, the ACA cliff IS the optimization, not state tax.
Cost breakdown
| Component | Amount |
|---|---|
| Federal income tax (22% bracket) | $6,600 |
| Texas state income tax | $0 |
| ACA premium tax credit clawback | $12,000 |
| Total cost on $30,000 conversion | $18,600 (62.0% effective) |
Scenario B (tax-free): $100k rip-the-bandage conversion in Texas
A retired couple in Texas aged 62 with $60,000 of Social Security and a $1.4M traditional IRA is past the ACA cliff and is no longer on Marketplace coverage. They convert $100,000 in a single 'rip the bandage' year. Federal tax on the conversion: ~$22,400 (mixed 22%/24% brackets after the standard deduction). Texas state tax: $0. Effective cost on the $100,000 conversion: $22,400, or 22.4%. In a no-state-income-tax state, the post-cliff playbook is to convert aggressively in low-spend years rather than dripping small amounts.
What the Monte Carlo data says about Texas
QuantCalc Research ran a 30-year, 10,000-path Monte Carlo simulation for an identical representative retiree (age 60, $2M starting balance, 60/40 portfolio, $80K real annual spend) in each of the 51 U.S. jurisdictions. Here's how Texas compared to the best- and worst-case states:
| Metric | Texas | Wyoming (best) | California (worst) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year success rate | 76.25% | 77.11% | 69.03% |
| Rank (of 51) | #6 | #1 | #51 |
| Median lifetime state tax (30y) | $0 | $0 | $154,980 |
| Median total tax (30y) | $218,400 | $218,400 | $373,380 |
| Median terminal balance | $1,020,142 | $999,751 | $695,612 |
| Δ success vs Wyoming | -0.86 pp | — | −8.08 pp |
Sources: QuantCalc 51-State Monte Carlo Study (2026-05-12) — 510,000 total paths, methodology fully documented and dataset released CC-BY-4.0. Texas's row in the dataset uses the same portfolio + spend + retirement age as every other state — the only variable is state tax treatment.
How Texas treats capital gains in retirement
Texas has no state tax on long-term capital gains. That makes tax-loss harvesting and gain-harvesting decisions purely federal exercises here — you keep the full federal 0%/15%/20% LTCG bracket benefit without a state-level add-on.
Why the ACA cliff hits hard in Texas
The 400% federal-poverty-level cliff is federal, not state-specific — but its dollar impact depends on the benchmark Silver-plan premium in your county. Texas's Marketplace pricing and your household composition determine the size of the subsidy at risk. A two-person household near 400% FPL can easily have $10,000–$15,000 of annual premium tax credit on the line. Under the OBBBA 2026 restoration of the cliff, $1 of additional MAGI above 400% FPL eliminates the entire credit.
For 2026 the 400% FPL threshold is:
- Household of 1: $62,600
- Household of 2: $84,600
- Household of 3: $106,600
- Household of 4: $128,600
Optimal Roth conversion strategy for Texas
The TX-specific playbook depends on tier:
- Identify your cliff distance. Compute MAGI from all income sources (wages, capital gains, interest, dividends, traditional withdrawals). Find your headroom under 400% FPL. Use the live cliff widget above for a quick check.
- Stay under the cliff if you can. In a no-state-income-tax state like Texas, the cliff IS the optimization. Convert just enough to fill out your headroom — every dollar over costs the full federal PTC.
- If you must go over, convert big. Once you've crossed the cliff, additional conversion dollars only cost federal + state tax (no incremental PTC loss). A "rip the bandage" conversion year can be efficient if you have many traditional dollars to move.
- Coordinate with capital gains and the 0% LTCG bracket. Texas has no state tax on long-term capital gains. That makes tax-loss harvesting and gain-harvesting decisions purely federal exercises here — you keep the full federal 0%/15%/20% LTCG bracket benefit without a state-level add-on.
- Plan ahead for IRMAA. The IRMAA Medicare premium surcharge has a 2-year lookback. A Texas resident in their early 60s converting today will see IRMAA implications at 65. See RMD + IRMAA calculator for the lookback math.
State tax basics for Texas retirees
| Question | Texas |
|---|---|
| State income tax | None |
| Number of brackets | No brackets (no income tax) |
| Social Security taxed | No |
| 401(k) / Traditional IRA taxed | No / exempt |
| Retirement-income exclusion (couple) | None |
| Roth conversion draws that exclusion | Not applicable |
| State estate / inheritance tax | No |
| Retirement-friendliness tier | tax free |
| Notable feature | no state income tax, but high property tax at roughly 1.6% effective |
| 30-yr MC success rate (rank) | 76.25% (#6/51) |
| Median 30-yr state tax | $0 |
Model your full Texas retirement scenario
Free 10,000-path Monte Carlo with state-specific tax engine, ACA cliff, Roth conversion optimizer, IRMAA lookback — all in your browser, no signup.
Run a free simulation →Related calculators and reading
- All-states retirement tax comparison — see Texas alongside the other 50 jurisdictions.
- State Retirement Tax Data 2026 — the per-jurisdiction rate, exclusion and Social Security figures behind this page, as CSV and JSON.
- ACA Subsidy Cliff Optimizer — find the largest Roth conversion that keeps you under 400% FPL.
- Roth Conversion Optimizer — bracket-fill vs. fixed-amount strategy comparison.
- RMD + IRMAA Calculator — Medicare premium surcharge based on 2-year-old MAGI.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator — sequence-of-returns-aware withdrawal planning.
- Research: 51-State 30-year Monte Carlo (2026) — full ranking and dataset.
- Research: Monte Carlo ACA Cliff 2026 — 80,000-path study of the cliff cost.
FAQ
Does Texas tax Roth conversions?
Texas has no state income tax, so Roth conversions cost $0 in state tax. The conversion is still a federal taxable event and can still trigger the 400% FPL ACA premium-tax-credit cliff.
What is Texas's 30-year Monte Carlo retirement success rate?
In QuantCalc's 510,000-path Monte Carlo study, a representative retiree in Texas (age 60, $2M balance, 60/40 portfolio, $80K real spend) finished 30 years at 76.25% success rate — ranked #6 of 51 jurisdictions. Median 30-year state tax: $0. Median terminal balance: $1,020,142.
What is the ACA cliff in Texas for 2026?
The ACA premium-tax-credit cliff is a federal threshold, not state-specific. For a household of two in 2026, it sits at 400% of the federal poverty level — $84,600. Crossing it by even $1 of MAGI eliminates the full subsidy under the OBBBA 2026 rules.
Is Texas a good state to retire for tax purposes?
Texas is one of the most retirement-tax-friendly states in the U.S.. No state income tax, but high property tax at roughly 1.6% effective. In our Monte Carlo ranking it placed #6 of 51 jurisdictions.
Does Texas tax Social Security benefits?
Texas has no state income tax, so Social Security benefits are not taxed at the state level.
Does Texas tax 401(k) and IRA withdrawals?
Texas has no state income tax, so 401(k) and traditional IRA withdrawals are not taxed at the state level.
Does Texas have a state estate or inheritance tax?
No — Texas does not impose a state-level estate or inheritance tax.
How does Texas tax capital gains?
Texas has no state tax on long-term capital gains. That makes tax-loss harvesting and gain-harvesting decisions purely federal exercises here — you keep the full federal 0%/15%/20% LTCG bracket benefit without a state-level add-on.
Last updated 2026-08-23. Texas levies no state income tax, so there is no state rate schedule to apply. ACA poverty-level figures from HHS 2026 Federal Register. Monte Carlo numbers from the QuantCalc 51-state research drop (2026-05-12, CC-BY-4.0). This page is educational. Not tax, legal, or financial advice — consult a qualified advisor.