In our 51-state planner study (one couple, both 60, $2M, $80,000 a year to spend after tax, 10,000 paths per state, every year priced by QuantCalc's federal and state tax engines), the median 30-year bill for federal and state income tax and IRMAA runs from $162,597 in the 16 jurisdictions that charge them no state tax to $309,718 in Oregon. California costs the same couple $31,115 of state income tax over 30 years. State choice moves the tax bill far more than the success rate (84.05% to 80.61%) — pick your jurisdiction to see the federal+state+ACA stack-up worked out with state-specific numbers.
The 30-year Monte Carlo ranking
One married couple (both 60, $2,000,000, a 60/40 portfolio, $80,000 a year to spend after tax for 30 years), run through QuantCalc's tax-aware planner 10,000 times in each state; only the state of residence changes, and the planner's federal and state tax engines price every year. Ranked by the median 30-year bill for federal and state income tax and IRMAA, the lowest group and the five highest:
| Rank | State | Median 30-yr income tax + IRMAA | 30-yr state income tax | 30-yr success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 (tied) | The 16 jurisdictions with no state tax for this couple | $162,597 | $0 | 84.05% |
| …the middle of the table (full ranking here)… | ||||
| #47 | Kansas | $262,883 | $98,769 | 81.89% |
| #48 | Indiana | $271,227 | $108,552 | 81.57% |
| #49 | Massachusetts | $272,613 | $109,984 | 81.55% |
| #50 | Maryland | $293,936 | $130,740 | 80.98% |
| #51 | Oregon | $309,718 | $146,914 | 80.61% |
Source: QuantCalc 51-State Monte Carlo Study (v2026.3, re-run 2026-10-12 on the planner), CC-BY-4.0 dataset. The no-state-tax group is the nine states without an income tax plus Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, North Dakota and Pennsylvania, whose rules leave this couple's IRA withdrawals untaxed in every year. Success rates run from 80.61% to 84.05% across all 51: for this couple the state changes the tax bill far more than the odds.
How to use this page
Pick your state. Each page covers the 2026 brackets, whether the state taxes Social Security and traditional retirement distributions, whether there's a state estate tax, a fully-worked $30,000 Roth conversion example showing the federal + state + ACA cliff stack-up, plus a tier-specific second scenario (rip-the-bandage in tax-free states, cliff-protective in high-tax states).
For an all-states-at-once comparison, see the single-page state tax calculator. Every state’s 2026 brackets and the tax on $50,000 to $200,000 of wages are on state income tax rates 2026. The nine states with no income tax are compared side by side on states with no income tax, and the tax on $40,000 to $150,000 of retirement income in every state is in the retiree income tax by state dataset. For the underlying methodology, see our methodology page.
Card rates are each state’s 2026 top marginal income-tax rate as computed by the QuantCalc state engine, the same figure its state page shows; every state’s statute and revenue-department sources are listed in the state engine documentation. Checked against the agencies for: North Carolina 3.99% (NCDOR tax rate schedules), Indiana 2.95% (Indiana DOR rates), and Kansas’s full Social Security subtraction from tax year 2024 (K.S.A. 79-32,117).
New York's estate cliff is its basic exclusion amount for 2026 deaths, $7,350,000 (NY Department of Taxation and Finance).
What changes from state to state
Three variables move per-state in retirement tax planning: the marginal income tax rate on Roth conversions and traditional withdrawals; whether Social Security and qualified-pension income are exempted (and at what income threshold); and whether the state imposes its own estate or inheritance tax independently of the federal exemption.
What does not change is the federal ACA premium-tax-credit cliff at 400% FPL — that's a federal threshold and applies identically in all states. What does change is how big the cost of crossing the cliff is in your specific state, because state tax stacks on top of federal tax and the subsidy clawback.