In our 510,000-path Monte Carlo retirement study, the spread between best (Wyoming, 77.07% 30-year success rate) and worst (California, 67.91%) was 9.16 percentage points. California retirees paid $167,580 more in state tax over 30 years than identical Wyoming retirees. State choice meaningfully shifts retirement outcomes — pick your jurisdiction to see the federal+state+ACA stack-up worked out with state-specific numbers.
The 30-year Monte Carlo ranking
Same retiree (age 60, $2M balance, 60/40 portfolio, $80K real annual spend), 10,000 paths per state, only variable changed is state of residence. Top and bottom 5 plus the full ranking link:
| Rank | State | 30-yr success | Median 30-yr state tax |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Wyoming | 77.07% | $0 |
| #2 | Louisiana | 76.56% | $0 |
| #3 | South Dakota | 76.54% | $0 |
| #4 | Mississippi | 76.51% | $0 |
| #5 | Pennsylvania | 76.51% | $0 |
| …mid-table at 73–75% (full ranking here)… | |||
| #47 | New Jersey | 70.53% | $135,450 |
| #48 | Minnesota | 70.45% | $124,110 |
| #49 | New York | 69.67% | $137,340 |
| #50 | District of Columbia | 69.31% | $135,450 |
| #51 | California | 67.91% | $167,580 |
Source: QuantCalc 51-State Monte Carlo Study (2026-05-12), CC-BY-4.0 dataset. Hawaii's #10 ranking despite its 11% top marginal rate is the standout surprise — HI exempts qualified retirement-account distributions.
How to use this page
Pick your state. Each page covers the 2026 brackets, whether the state taxes Social Security and traditional retirement distributions, whether there's a state estate tax, a fully-worked $30,000 Roth conversion example showing the federal + state + ACA cliff stack-up, plus a tier-specific second scenario (rip-the-bandage in tax-free states, cliff-protective in high-tax states).
For an all-states-at-once comparison, see the single-page state tax calculator. For the underlying methodology, see our methodology page.
What changes from state to state
Three variables move per-state in retirement tax planning: the marginal income tax rate on Roth conversions and traditional withdrawals; whether Social Security and qualified-pension income are exempted (and at what income threshold); and whether the state imposes its own estate or inheritance tax independently of the federal exemption.
What does not change is the federal ACA premium-tax-credit cliff at 400% FPL — that's a federal threshold and applies identically in all states. What does change is how big the cost of crossing the cliff is in your specific state, because state tax stacks on top of federal tax and the subsidy clawback.