Two retirees can follow the identical 4% plan and end 30 years apart in wealth — not because one earned a higher average return, but because of when the good and bad years landed. This dataset makes that concrete with history rather than simulation: for all 123 rolling 30-year retirement cohorts in Robert Shiller's long-horizon record, it reports the annualized REAL return of the first 5 and first 10 years and the terminal wealth of a 60/40 portfolio drawn down at 4% real. The single number that summarises sequence risk is the rank correlation between the first five years and the 30-year outcome: 0.633.
The headline: Across all 123 historical cohorts, the first five years' annualized real return has a Spearman rank correlation of 0.633 with 30-year terminal wealth under the 4% rule — and the first ten years, 0.795. The full 30-year average return correlates 0.799. In plain terms, where a retirement started tells you most of where it ended: the worst cohort (1965, first-5-year real -1.18%) finished at 0.000× its starting balance, while the best (1982, first-5-year real 17.87%) finished at 5.630×. This is the citable dataset companion to our 50,000-path Monte Carlo study, which isolates the same effect by reordering the first decade.
Per-cohort record (123 cohorts)
Click any column header to sort. Terminal wealth is a multiple of the starting balance after 30 years of 4% real withdrawals (0.000× = the plan depleted before year 30). "Max sustainable rate" is the highest constant real withdrawal rate that would have survived the full 30 years — the same figure published in the safe-withdrawal-by-cohort study, computed by the same imported code.
| Retirement start year | First 5yr real (annualized %) | First 10yr real (annualized %) | Full 30yr real (annualized %) | 4% rule terminal wealth (x start) | 4% rule survived | Max sustainable rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1871 | 9.65% | 11.74% | 7.88% | 5.359× | Yes | 8.89% |
| 1872 | 6.07% | 10.06% | 7.89% | 5.327× | Yes | 8.81% |
| 1873 | 8.82% | 10.03% | 7.56% | 4.962× | Yes | 9.04% |
| 1874 | 12.48% | 10.09% | 7.18% | 4.555× | Yes | 9.30% |
| 1875 | 11.52% | 9.20% | 7.29% | 4.532× | Yes | 8.87% |
| 1876 | 13.88% | 10.22% | 7.32% | 4.411× | Yes | 8.50% |
| 1877 | 14.20% | 11.89% | 7.46% | 5.161× | Yes | 9.89% |
| 1878 | 11.25% | 9.39% | 6.36% | 3.534× | Yes | 9.01% |
| 1879 | 7.75% | 7.94% | 6.27% | 3.025× | Yes | 7.81% |
| 1880 | 6.93% | 8.11% | 5.96% | 2.710× | Yes | 7.65% |
| 1881 | 6.67% | 5.09% | 5.37% | 1.849× | Yes | 6.50% |
| 1882 | 9.63% | 7.68% | 5.74% | 2.402× | Yes | 7.27% |
| 1883 | 7.57% | 6.78% | 5.47% | 2.238× | Yes | 7.32% |
| 1884 | 8.13% | 6.57% | 5.17% | 2.057× | Yes | 7.31% |
| 1885 | 9.30% | 6.94% | 4.90% | 1.919× | Yes | 7.37% |
| 1886 | 3.53% | 4.90% | 4.70% | 1.445× | Yes | 6.29% |
| 1887 | 5.75% | 4.80% | 4.22% | 1.194× | Yes | 6.11% |
| 1888 | 6.00% | 6.29% | 3.36% | 1.075× | Yes | 6.65% |
| 1889 | 5.02% | 7.13% | 2.92% | 0.880× | Yes | 6.36% |
| 1890 | 4.63% | 4.71% | 2.42% | 0.672× | Yes | 5.95% |
| 1891 | 6.29% | 6.92% | 2.42% | 0.785× | Yes | 6.48% |
| 1892 | 3.86% | 5.97% | 2.53% | 0.600× | Yes | 5.58% |
| 1893 | 6.58% | 5.92% | 3.25% | 0.847× | Yes | 5.92% |
| 1894 | 9.27% | 4.94% | 3.21% | 0.830× | Yes | 5.90% |
| 1895 | 4.79% | 5.75% | 3.50% | 0.807× | Yes | 5.62% |
| 1896 | 7.55% | 6.92% | 3.85% | 0.923× | Yes | 5.69% |
| 1897 | 8.13% | 5.83% | 4.01% | 0.898× | Yes | 5.53% |
| 1898 | 5.26% | 3.48% | 4.44% | 0.850× | Yes | 5.20% |
| 1899 | 0.77% | 3.79% | 4.79% | 0.516× | Yes | 4.58% |
| 1900 | 6.72% | 5.09% | 5.11% | 1.137× | Yes | 5.37% |
| 1901 | 6.28% | 4.13% | 4.36% | 0.600× | Yes | 4.80% |
| 1902 | 3.58% | 3.62% | 3.34% | 0.311× | Yes | 4.52% |
| 1903 | 1.73% | 3.72% | 3.79% | 0.520× | Yes | 4.82% |
| 1904 | 6.89% | 4.03% | 4.96% | 1.017× | Yes | 5.25% |
| 1905 | 3.48% | 2.06% | 4.20% | 0.478× | Yes | 4.65% |
| 1906 | 2.02% | 2.34% | 4.71% | 0.193× | Yes | 4.20% |
| 1907 | 3.66% | 2.07% | 5.41% | 0.529× | Yes | 4.49% |
| 1908 | 5.75% | 0.40% | 5.13% | 1.086× | Yes | 5.28% |
| 1909 | 1.25% | -1.95% | 4.90% | 0.488× | Yes | 4.53% |
| 1910 | 0.66% | -2.37% | 5.04% | 0.637× | Yes | 4.68% |
| 1911 | 2.66% | -3.50% | 4.64% | 0.480× | Yes | 4.56% |
| 1912 | 0.51% | -1.84% | 3.88% | 0.355× | Yes | 4.51% |
| 1913 | -4.67% | 0.19% | 4.16% | 0.550× | Yes | 4.77% |
| 1914 | -5.06% | 0.70% | 4.63% | 0.808× | Yes | 5.05% |
| 1915 | -5.30% | 2.71% | 5.08% | 1.145× | Yes | 5.40% |
| 1916 | -9.29% | 2.37% | 5.22% | 0.764× | Yes | 4.79% |
| 1917 | -4.13% | 4.15% | 4.61% | 0.943× | Yes | 5.29% |
| 1918 | 5.31% | 9.64% | 5.35% | 2.181× | Yes | 7.36% |
| 1919 | 6.80% | 13.08% | 5.70% | 2.685× | Yes | 8.15% |
| 1920 | 11.40% | 13.17% | 6.30% | 3.500× | Yes | 9.09% |
| 1921 | 15.52% | 13.09% | 6.88% | 4.532× | Yes | 10.39% |
| 1922 | 13.15% | 8.51% | 6.42% | 3.659× | Yes | 9.19% |
| 1923 | 14.15% | 7.58% | 6.09% | 3.065× | Yes | 8.33% |
| 1924 | 19.73% | 10.37% | 6.10% | 3.188× | Yes | 8.70% |
| 1925 | 14.97% | 7.92% | 6.41% | 3.194× | Yes | 7.92% |
| 1926 | 10.72% | 9.59% | 6.52% | 3.087× | Yes | 7.47% |
| 1927 | 4.05% | 10.17% | 6.14% | 2.620× | Yes | 7.12% |
| 1928 | 1.39% | 5.57% | 5.19% | 1.550× | Yes | 6.05% |
| 1929 | 1.75% | 4.12% | 4.93% | 0.754× | Yes | 4.87% |
| 1930 | 1.30% | 4.88% | 5.15% | 1.059× | Yes | 5.23% |
| 1931 | 8.48% | 4.97% | 5.59% | 1.579× | Yes | 5.79% |
| 1932 | 16.65% | 5.24% | 6.67% | 3.192× | Yes | 7.40% |
| 1933 | 9.91% | 4.85% | 6.32% | 2.791× | Yes | 7.19% |
| 1934 | 6.55% | 3.06% | 5.70% | 1.611× | Yes | 5.76% |
| 1935 | 8.58% | 4.68% | 6.24% | 2.294× | Yes | 6.39% |
| 1936 | 1.58% | 3.85% | 5.43% | 1.044× | Yes | 5.09% |
| 1937 | -5.05% | -0.22% | 4.66% | 0.434× | Yes | 4.50% |
| 1938 | 0.03% | 1.03% | 5.55% | 1.507× | Yes | 5.70% |
| 1939 | -0.32% | 0.29% | 5.19% | 1.086× | Yes | 5.25% |
| 1940 | 0.92% | 1.20% | 4.58% | 0.923× | Yes | 5.27% |
| 1941 | 6.17% | 2.85% | 4.97% | 1.314× | Yes | 5.77% |
| 1942 | 4.86% | 5.56% | 5.85% | 2.437× | Yes | 7.17% |
| 1943 | 2.04% | 5.86% | 5.92% | 2.490× | Yes | 7.19% |
| 1944 | 0.91% | 4.99% | 4.89% | 1.740× | Yes | 6.84% |
| 1945 | 1.47% | 6.67% | 3.74% | 1.165× | Yes | 6.52% |
| 1946 | -0.36% | 6.19% | 3.62% | 0.820× | Yes | 5.57% |
| 1947 | 6.26% | 8.77% | 4.62% | 1.757× | Yes | 7.31% |
| 1948 | 9.84% | 9.14% | 4.51% | 1.961× | Yes | 8.37% |
| 1949 | 9.23% | 10.62% | 4.35% | 1.883× | Yes | 8.43% |
| 1950 | 12.13% | 9.54% | 3.78% | 1.501× | Yes | 7.89% |
| 1951 | 13.17% | 9.03% | 3.53% | 1.313× | Yes | 7.46% |
| 1952 | 11.34% | 9.27% | 2.84% | 1.027× | Yes | 7.18% |
| 1953 | 8.46% | 8.28% | 3.41% | 1.141× | Yes | 6.87% |
| 1954 | 12.03% | 9.14% | 3.61% | 1.238× | Yes | 6.98% |
| 1955 | 7.02% | 7.38% | 2.93% | 0.693× | Yes | 5.64% |
| 1956 | 5.04% | 6.26% | 3.04% | 0.485× | Yes | 4.98% |
| 1957 | 7.24% | 5.63% | 3.82% | 0.668× | Yes | 5.11% |
| 1958 | 8.10% | 6.63% | 3.76% | 0.838× | Yes | 5.53% |
| 1959 | 6.33% | 4.90% | 3.37% | 0.426× | Yes | 4.75% |
| 1960 | 7.74% | 3.19% | 3.70% | 0.470× | Yes | 4.75% |
| 1961 | 7.49% | 3.14% | 3.40% | 0.355× | Yes | 4.60% |
| 1962 | 4.05% | 2.83% | 3.71% | 0.173× | Yes | 4.25% |
| 1963 | 5.19% | 3.66% | 3.90% | 0.281× | Yes | 4.39% |
| 1964 | 3.48% | 0.72% | 3.83% | 0.049× | Yes | 4.06% |
| 1965 | -1.18% | -2.51% | 3.33% | 0.000× | No | 3.79% |
| 1966 | -1.03% | -1.41% | 3.97% | 0.000× | No | 3.69% |
| 1967 | 1.62% | -0.33% | 4.57% | 0.000× | No | 3.99% |
| 1968 | 2.15% | -1.92% | 5.05% | 0.000× | No | 3.92% |
| 1969 | -1.97% | -2.09% | 5.63% | 0.000× | No | 3.93% |
| 1970 | -3.83% | -1.11% | 6.22% | 0.847× | Yes | 4.64% |
| 1971 | -1.79% | -1.32% | 6.01% | 0.695× | Yes | 4.55% |
| 1972 | -2.24% | -3.20% | 5.49% | 0.420× | Yes | 4.37% |
| 1973 | -5.82% | -1.48% | 4.88% | 0.199× | Yes | 4.20% |
| 1974 | -2.22% | 1.19% | 6.03% | 1.331× | Yes | 5.19% |
| 1975 | 1.69% | 4.18% | 6.92% | 3.083× | Yes | 6.83% |
| 1976 | -0.85% | 4.43% | 6.44% | 2.273× | Yes | 6.15% |
| 1977 | -4.14% | 6.30% | 6.47% | 2.285× | Yes | 6.14% |
| 1978 | 3.06% | 6.79% | 6.86% | 3.275× | Yes | 7.24% |
| 1979 | 4.71% | 7.54% | 6.21% | 2.912× | Yes | 7.65% |
| 1980 | 6.72% | 9.30% | 6.81% | 3.803× | Yes | 8.46% |
| 1981 | 9.99% | 8.61% | 7.03% | 4.177× | Yes | 8.78% |
| 1982 | 17.87% | 12.05% | 7.61% | 5.630× | Yes | 10.64% |
| 1983 | 10.66% | 9.83% | 7.02% | 4.305× | Yes | 9.15% |
| 1984 | 10.45% | 9.84% | 7.09% | 4.372× | Yes | 9.10% |
| 1985 | 11.95% | 8.63% | 7.29% | 4.707× | Yes | 9.30% |
| 1986 | 7.24% | 9.14% | 6.49% | 3.451× | Yes | 8.38% |
| 1987 | 6.53% | 7.93% | 6.00% | 2.529× | Yes | 7.15% |
| 1988 | 9.01% | 10.66% | 6.67% | 3.509× | Yes | 8.10% |
| 1989 | 9.22% | 11.95% | 6.25% | 3.103× | Yes | 8.05% |
| 1990 | 5.42% | 10.88% | 6.39% | 3.034× | Yes | 7.59% |
| 1991 | 11.08% | 11.16% | 6.88% | 3.826× | Yes | 8.32% |
| 1992 | 9.35% | 8.21% | 6.31% | 2.855× | Yes | 7.35% |
| 1993 | 12.34% | 6.60% | 5.47% | 2.284× | Yes | 7.44% |
CC-BY-4.0 — free for any use including republication and journalism, with attribution to QuantCalc Research.
Methodology
Data: Every figure is computed from the committed snapshot research/data/shiller-annual-2026-07.csv (Robert J. Shiller, "Irrational Exuberance" long-horizon dataset (ie_data.xls, Data sheet), retrieved 2026-07-21). This is HISTORY, not a forecast or a simulation.
Returns: Annual REAL (CPI-deflated) total returns on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, rebalanced yearly. The bond leg is a 10-year constant-maturity par-bond total return derived from the GS10 yield move. Annualized figures are geometric.
4% rule terminal wealth: Starting from 1.000×, withdraw 4% of the initial balance (a set real amount) at the start of each year, then apply that year's real return, for 30 years. A cohort whose balance is driven negative is depleted and reports 0.000×. This withdrawal loop is IMPORTED verbatim from scripts/gen_cohort_swr_study.py (its survives() convention), so terminal wealth > 0 exactly when that study reports survival, and the max-sustainable-rate column here equals its max_swr column cohort-for-cohort.
Headline correlation: Spearman rank correlation (average-rank tie handling) between the first-5-year annualized real return and the 30-year terminal wealth, across all 123 cohorts: 0.633. Rank correlation, not Pearson, so it measures monotone ordering and is not distorted by the pile-up of depleted cohorts at 0.000×.
Scope: A rolling-cohort historical description, not a probability. It reports what happened to each start date; it does not forecast any future cohort. For a forward-looking, distributional treatment see the Monte Carlo study.
Reproducibility: Generated by scripts/gen_sequence_risk_dataset.py; re-running against the same snapshot reproduces byte-identical rows.
Not advice: Reference data for research and planning, not financial advice.
Stress-test your own start date
Sequence risk is about your first decade, which you can't choose. The QuantCalc planner runs your plan through thousands of ordered return paths — including bad-first-decade sequences — so you can see the spread of outcomes, not just the average.
Open the planner →Changelog
- v2026.1 — initial release (2026-07-22). 123 cohorts (1871–1993), first-5/10-year real return sequences, 4% rule terminal wealth, and the first-5-year-vs-terminal rank correlation (0.633), computed from the committed Shiller snapshot via imported cohort-study code.
Dataset license: CC-BY-4.0. QuantCalc is an independent retirement-planning research project. Not financial, tax, or legal advice.
Cite this dataset
QuantCalc Research (2026). Sequence-of-Returns Risk by Retirement Cohort 2026. https://quantcalc.app/data/sequence-of-returns-2026/ (accessed <date>).
BibTeX
@misc{quantcalc2026sequenceofreturnsriskbyretirementcohort2,
title = {Sequence-of-Returns Risk by Retirement Cohort 2026},
author = {{QuantCalc Research}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://quantcalc.app/data/sequence-of-returns-2026/},
note = {Accessed <date>}
}Machine-readable citation metadata (schema.org identifier and citation fields) is embedded in this page's JSON-LD, at the stable identifier https://quantcalc.app/data/sequence-of-returns-2026/.