{
  "version": "2026.1",
  "generated_by": "scripts/gen_sequence_risk_dataset.py \u2014 reuses gen_cohort_swr_study.py's snapshot loader and withdrawal mechanics",
  "source": {
    "name": "Robert J. Shiller, \"Irrational Exuberance\" long-horizon dataset (ie_data.xls, Data sheet)",
    "url": "http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls",
    "retrieved": "2026-07-21",
    "snapshot": "research/data/shiller-annual-2026-07.csv"
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-07-22T21:12:50.395049+00:00",
  "methodology": {
    "horizon_years": 30,
    "headline_allocation": "60/40",
    "withdraw_rate_pct": 4.0,
    "returns": "annual REAL (CPI-deflated) total returns; 60/40 rebalanced; 10y constant-maturity par-bond total return from the GS10 yield move",
    "terminal_wealth": "multiple of the starting balance after 30 years of 4% real withdrawals at the start of each year; 0.0 = depleted mid-retirement",
    "correlation": "Spearman rank correlation (average-rank tie handling) between the first-5-year annualized real return and the 4% rule 30-year terminal wealth, across all cohorts"
  },
  "aggregates": {
    "cohort_count": 123,
    "span": [
      1871,
      1993
    ],
    "headline_alloc": "60/40",
    "withdraw_rate_pct": 4.0,
    "spearman_first5_vs_terminal": 0.633,
    "spearman_first10_vs_terminal": 0.795,
    "spearman_full30_vs_terminal": 0.799,
    "median_terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.313,
    "mean_terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.83,
    "cohorts_4pct_depleted": 5,
    "worst_cohort": {
      "start_year": 1965,
      "first5_real_annualized": -1.18,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.0
    },
    "best_cohort": {
      "start_year": 1982,
      "first5_real_annualized": 17.87,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 5.63
    }
  },
  "fields": [
    "start_year",
    "first5_real_annualized",
    "first10_real_annualized",
    "full30_real_annualized",
    "terminal_wealth_4pct",
    "survived_4pct",
    "max_swr_60_40"
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "start_year": 1871,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.65,
      "first10_real_annualized": 11.74,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.88,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 5.359,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.89
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1872,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.07,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.06,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.89,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 5.327,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.81
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1873,
      "first5_real_annualized": 8.82,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.03,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.56,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.962,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.04
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1874,
      "first5_real_annualized": 12.48,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.09,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.18,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.555,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.3
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1875,
      "first5_real_annualized": 11.52,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.2,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.29,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.532,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.87
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1876,
      "first5_real_annualized": 13.88,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.22,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.32,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.411,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.5
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1877,
      "first5_real_annualized": 14.2,
      "first10_real_annualized": 11.89,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.46,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 5.161,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.89
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1878,
      "first5_real_annualized": 11.25,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.39,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.36,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.534,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.01
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1879,
      "first5_real_annualized": 7.75,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.94,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.27,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.025,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.81
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1880,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.93,
      "first10_real_annualized": 8.11,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.96,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.71,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.65
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1881,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.67,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.09,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.37,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.849,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.5
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1882,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.63,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.68,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.74,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.402,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.27
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1883,
      "first5_real_annualized": 7.57,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.78,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.47,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.238,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.32
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1884,
      "first5_real_annualized": 8.13,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.57,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.17,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.057,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.31
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1885,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.3,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.94,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.9,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.919,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.37
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1886,
      "first5_real_annualized": 3.53,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.9,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.7,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.445,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.29
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1887,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.75,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.8,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.22,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.194,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.11
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1888,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.0,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.29,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.36,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.075,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.65
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1889,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.02,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.13,
      "full30_real_annualized": 2.92,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.88,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.36
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1890,
      "first5_real_annualized": 4.63,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.71,
      "full30_real_annualized": 2.42,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.672,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.95
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1891,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.29,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.92,
      "full30_real_annualized": 2.42,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.785,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.48
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1892,
      "first5_real_annualized": 3.86,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.97,
      "full30_real_annualized": 2.53,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.6,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.58
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1893,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.58,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.92,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.25,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.847,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.92
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1894,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.27,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.94,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.21,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.83,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.9
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1895,
      "first5_real_annualized": 4.79,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.75,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.5,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.807,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.62
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1896,
      "first5_real_annualized": 7.55,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.92,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.85,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.923,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.69
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1897,
      "first5_real_annualized": 8.13,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.83,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.01,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.898,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.53
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1898,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.26,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.48,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.44,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.85,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.2
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1899,
      "first5_real_annualized": 0.77,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.79,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.79,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.516,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.58
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1900,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.72,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.09,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.11,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.137,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.37
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1901,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.28,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.13,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.36,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.6,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.8
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1902,
      "first5_real_annualized": 3.58,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.62,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.34,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.311,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.52
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1903,
      "first5_real_annualized": 1.73,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.72,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.79,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.52,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.82
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1904,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.89,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.03,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.96,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.017,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.25
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1905,
      "first5_real_annualized": 3.48,
      "first10_real_annualized": 2.06,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.2,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.478,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.65
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1906,
      "first5_real_annualized": 2.02,
      "first10_real_annualized": 2.34,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.71,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.193,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.2
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1907,
      "first5_real_annualized": 3.66,
      "first10_real_annualized": 2.07,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.41,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.529,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.49
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1908,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.75,
      "first10_real_annualized": 0.4,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.13,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.086,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.28
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1909,
      "first5_real_annualized": 1.25,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.95,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.9,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.488,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.53
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1910,
      "first5_real_annualized": 0.66,
      "first10_real_annualized": -2.37,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.04,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.637,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.68
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1911,
      "first5_real_annualized": 2.66,
      "first10_real_annualized": -3.5,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.64,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.48,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.56
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1912,
      "first5_real_annualized": 0.51,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.84,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.88,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.355,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.51
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1913,
      "first5_real_annualized": -4.67,
      "first10_real_annualized": 0.19,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.16,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.55,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.77
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1914,
      "first5_real_annualized": -5.06,
      "first10_real_annualized": 0.7,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.63,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.808,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.05
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1915,
      "first5_real_annualized": -5.3,
      "first10_real_annualized": 2.71,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.08,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.145,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.4
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1916,
      "first5_real_annualized": -9.29,
      "first10_real_annualized": 2.37,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.22,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.764,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.79
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1917,
      "first5_real_annualized": -4.13,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.15,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.61,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.943,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.29
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1918,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.31,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.64,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.35,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.181,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.36
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1919,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.8,
      "first10_real_annualized": 13.08,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.7,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.685,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.15
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1920,
      "first5_real_annualized": 11.4,
      "first10_real_annualized": 13.17,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.3,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.5,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.09
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1921,
      "first5_real_annualized": 15.52,
      "first10_real_annualized": 13.09,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.88,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.532,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 10.39
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1922,
      "first5_real_annualized": 13.15,
      "first10_real_annualized": 8.51,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.42,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.659,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.19
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1923,
      "first5_real_annualized": 14.15,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.58,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.09,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.065,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.33
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1924,
      "first5_real_annualized": 19.73,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.37,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.1,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.188,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.7
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1925,
      "first5_real_annualized": 14.97,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.92,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.41,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.194,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.92
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1926,
      "first5_real_annualized": 10.72,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.59,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.52,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.087,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.47
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1927,
      "first5_real_annualized": 4.05,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.17,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.14,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.62,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.12
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1928,
      "first5_real_annualized": 1.39,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.57,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.19,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.55,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 6.05
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1929,
      "first5_real_annualized": 1.75,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.12,
      "full30_real_annualized": 4.93,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.754,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 4.87
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1930,
      "first5_real_annualized": 1.3,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.88,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.15,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.059,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.23
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1931,
      "first5_real_annualized": 8.48,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.97,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.59,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.579,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.79
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1932,
      "first5_real_annualized": 16.65,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.24,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.67,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.192,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.4
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1933,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.91,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.85,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.32,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.791,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.19
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1934,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.55,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.06,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.7,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 1.611,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 5.76
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1935,
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      "first5_real_annualized": -0.32,
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      "first5_real_annualized": 9.23,
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      "full30_real_annualized": 4.35,
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      "first5_real_annualized": 12.13,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 6.98
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      "first5_real_annualized": 7.24,
      "first10_real_annualized": 5.63,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.82,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.668,
      "survived_4pct": true,
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      "first5_real_annualized": 8.1,
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      "full30_real_annualized": 3.76,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.838,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 5.53
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      "first5_real_annualized": 6.33,
      "first10_real_annualized": 4.9,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.37,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.426,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.75
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      "first5_real_annualized": 7.74,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.19,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.7,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.47,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.75
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      "first5_real_annualized": 7.49,
      "first10_real_annualized": 3.14,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.6
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      "first5_real_annualized": 4.05,
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.173,
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      "first5_real_annualized": 5.19,
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.281,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.39
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      "first5_real_annualized": 3.48,
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.049,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.06
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.0,
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      "first5_real_annualized": -1.03,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.41,
      "full30_real_annualized": 3.97,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.0,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 3.69
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      "first5_real_annualized": 1.62,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 3.99
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      "start_year": 1968,
      "first5_real_annualized": 2.15,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.92,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.05,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.0,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 3.92
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      "start_year": 1969,
      "first5_real_annualized": -1.97,
      "first10_real_annualized": -2.09,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.63,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.0,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 3.93
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      "start_year": 1970,
      "first5_real_annualized": -3.83,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.11,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.22,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.847,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.64
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      "start_year": 1971,
      "first5_real_annualized": -1.79,
      "first10_real_annualized": -1.32,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.01,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.695,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.55
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 0.42,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 4.37
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.083,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 6.83
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.273,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 6.15
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      "first5_real_annualized": -4.14,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.3,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.47,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.285,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 6.14
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      "first5_real_annualized": 3.06,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.79,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.86,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.275,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 7.24
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      "first5_real_annualized": 4.71,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.54,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.21,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.912,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 7.65
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      "start_year": 1980,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.72,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.3,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.81,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.803,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 8.46
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      "start_year": 1981,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.99,
      "first10_real_annualized": 8.61,
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      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.177,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.78
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      "start_year": 1982,
      "first5_real_annualized": 17.87,
      "first10_real_annualized": 12.05,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.61,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 5.63,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 10.64
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      "start_year": 1983,
      "first5_real_annualized": 10.66,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.83,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.02,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.305,
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      "max_swr_60_40": 9.15
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      "start_year": 1984,
      "first5_real_annualized": 10.45,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.84,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.09,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.372,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.1
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      "start_year": 1985,
      "first5_real_annualized": 11.95,
      "first10_real_annualized": 8.63,
      "full30_real_annualized": 7.29,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 4.707,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 9.3
    },
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      "start_year": 1986,
      "first5_real_annualized": 7.24,
      "first10_real_annualized": 9.14,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.49,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.451,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.38
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      "start_year": 1987,
      "first5_real_annualized": 6.53,
      "first10_real_annualized": 7.93,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.0,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.529,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.15
    },
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      "start_year": 1988,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.01,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.66,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.67,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.509,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.1
    },
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      "start_year": 1989,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.22,
      "first10_real_annualized": 11.95,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.25,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.103,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.05
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1990,
      "first5_real_annualized": 5.42,
      "first10_real_annualized": 10.88,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.39,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.034,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.59
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1991,
      "first5_real_annualized": 11.08,
      "first10_real_annualized": 11.16,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.88,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 3.826,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 8.32
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1992,
      "first5_real_annualized": 9.35,
      "first10_real_annualized": 8.21,
      "full30_real_annualized": 6.31,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.855,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.35
    },
    {
      "start_year": 1993,
      "first5_real_annualized": 12.34,
      "first10_real_annualized": 6.6,
      "full30_real_annualized": 5.47,
      "terminal_wealth_4pct": 2.284,
      "survived_4pct": true,
      "max_swr_60_40": 7.44
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Sequence-of-returns risk, quantified (50,000-path Monte Carlo)",
      "url": "https://quantcalc.app/research/sequence-of-returns-risk-2026/"
    },
    {
      "title": "Safe withdrawal by retirement cohort (2026)",
      "url": "https://quantcalc.app/research/safe-withdrawal-by-retirement-cohort-2026/"
    }
  ]
}