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Success Rate
?Success rate is the share of simulations where you don't run out of money. 95% CI is the Wilson interval — the true rate lies in this range with 95% confidence. At 100 sims the CI is wide (~10%); at 10,000 sims (PRO) it narrows to ~1%. Dollar values shown below are inflation-adjusted.
Based on 100 Monte Carlo simulations · How this works →
10th Pctl
?In 90% of simulations, your portfolio ends above this amount
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Median
?Half of simulations end above this amount, half below
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90th Pctl
?Only 10% of simulations end above this amount (optimistic outcome)
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All dollar values are inflation-adjusted to today's dollars (real $). Why?
Recommended Order
?Median lifetime tax paid under the recommended policy (federal + state + Medicare surcharges + penalties; with wage or self-employment events, also the Social Security and Medicare tax on wages and the self-employment tax; and the tax on any wage, self-employment, taxable-sale or taxable-windfall event before retirement), in today's dollars. Taxes are withdrawn from the accounts each year on top of spending. The policy — a withdrawal order, and a Roth-conversion rule unless you entered your own — is chosen from a set of whole-retirement candidates, listed in the methodology, as the one with the lowest present value of lifetime tax on these market paths.
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Traditional-First
?Median lifetime tax paid when drawing traditional first, then Roth, then taxable, simulated independently over the same market paths. Taxes are withdrawn from the accounts each year on top of spending.
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Advantage of the recommended order (present value)
?Median of the per-path present-value difference (traditional-first − recommended order) in lifetime tax, including tax still owed on any traditional balance left at the end and, on paths where the portfolio runs out, the spending it could no longer fund. Traditional-first is itself one of the candidate orders, so this is never below zero. It can be positive even when the recommended order pays MORE lifetime tax than traditional-first, because its tax falls later — see the line under the recommended order.
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Methodology: spending is after tax — each year's withdrawal covers spending plus that year's federal, state and Medicare-surcharge bill, paid from the accounts drawn. Several whole-retirement policies — withdrawal orders, and bracket-fill Roth-conversion rules unless you entered your own plan — are simulated on the same market paths; the recommended one has the lowest present value of lifetime tax (each year's bill discounted at the portfolio's own return, plus tax still owed on any traditional balance at the end, valued at an heir's single-filer rate over ten years). Spending the portfolio could not fund is not added on top: it is the same money as the extra tax that caused it. The two lifetime-tax figures are medians of tax paid in today's dollars, each over its own order's paths; the saving is paired per path, and the explanation beneath is read off the one path whose advantage is the median, so its parts add up. Details
Assumptions used in this result — click to expand
Run a simulation to see the exact assumptions behind your result.
What this plan supports ?The annual spending the plan carries, its withdrawal rate on the portfolio at retirement, and the two portfolio levels (Guyton-Klinger bands, ±20% of the initial rate) at which that spending would be raised or trimmed. When a dynamic rule ran, the deciles and band show the spending the simulation actually delivered across all paths.
Annual spending
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If the portfolio rises to
If the portfolio falls to
What the simulation delivered, real spending per year:
worst decile
median
best decile
Portfolio Projection
Allocation
Monte Carlo Paths
Run simulation to see individual paths
Glide Path ?How your asset allocation shifts over time (e.g., more bonds as you age)
Income vs Spending
Run simulation to see income vs spending
Ruin Probability ?The chance your portfolio hits $0 at each point in retirement
Run simulation to see ruin probability
What-if comparisons PRO ?Each row is a full simulation of the plan at the same path count, through the same engine as the Run button. Claiming ages restate the benefit through the primary insurance amount with SSA factors. Scenarios are snapshots of the whole input set, saved in this browser. The claiming search on the same paths states its own path count with its result.
Social Security claiming age
?PRO, Tax-Aware Mode. Runs every claiming age from 62 (or your age today) to 70, and for a couple every pair of ages, through the full tax-aware plan on the same simulated paths, and compares each with your plan's own claiming age path by path.
Scenarios
Account Depletion
Tax Burden
IRMAA Zones ?Medicare surcharge zones based on your projected MAGI. Green = safe, Yellow = near cliff, Red = surcharge applies.
Year-by-Year Withdrawal Strategy
| Age | Trad. | Roth | Taxable | Converted | Tax | IRMAA | Eff. Rate |
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