Across 123 rolling 30-year retirement cohorts back to 1871, a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal from a 60/40 portfolio kept the portfolio solvent in 95.9% of cohorts. The weakest cohort, starting in 1966, could sustain only 3.69%; the median cohort could have taken 6.15%. These are historical survival rates — a record of the past, not a prediction.
30-year survival by withdrawal rate
| Stock / bond mix | 4.0% rate | 4.5% rate | 5.0% rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60/40 | 95.9% | 89.4% | 74.8% |
| 50/50 | 95.1% | 83.7% | 69.9% |
| 80/20 | 96.7% | 91.9% | 79.7% |
Survival is the share of historical starting years in which a portfolio lasted the full 30 years at that initial withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation each year. Past survival does not guarantee future outcomes, and forward-looking capital-market assumptions imply lower sustainable rates.
Methodology
Figures taken verbatim from the QuantCalc safe-withdrawal-by-cohort study (123 historical 30-year cohorts, 60/40 headline mix). Historical returns only; not a forecast. Method and assumptions are documented at the methodology page.
Every figure on this page is computed at build time from QuantCalc's parity-tested calculation modules or a committed dataset — never hand-entered. Reference for research and planning only; not tax, legal, or investment advice.
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Changelog
- v2026.1 — first publication. Figures computed from the 2026 tax-constants mirror and committed datasets.
Cite this dataset
QuantCalc Research (2026). Is the 4% withdrawal rule still safe in 2026?. https://quantcalc.app/answers/is-the-4-percent-rule-safe/ (accessed <date>).
BibTeX
@misc{quantcalc2026isthe4withdrawalrulestillsafein2026,
title = {Is the 4% withdrawal rule still safe in 2026?},
author = {{QuantCalc Research}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://quantcalc.app/answers/is-the-4-percent-rule-safe/},
note = {Accessed <date>}
}Machine-readable citation metadata (schema.org identifier and citation fields) is embedded in this page's JSON-LD, at the stable identifier https://quantcalc.app/answers/is-the-4-percent-rule-safe/.