How Long Will My Money Last in Retirement? Calculator (10,000 Market Paths)
Enter your savings and what you withdraw each year: the calculator draws 10,000 market paths and shows when the money runs out in the bad cases and the typical case.
At 65, $1,000,000 withdrawn at $50,000 a year (rising with inflation) lasts to 90 in 77% of 10,000 market paths and to 95 in 67%. One path in ten runs out by age 85; half are still funded at 100. A steady 4.0% real return every year would make it last 37 years — the gap is sequence risk.
Last updated 2026-11-04. Sources are linked next to each figure and listed at the end.
How long will my money last?
The withdrawal rises with inflation each year; the plan runs to age 100. Subtract Social Security and pensions from your spending first: the withdrawal is what the savings must pay.
Your Social Security, pension and taxes change when the money runs out. Run them together, with Roth conversions and a PDF report: Personal PRO — Go PRO — $49 once →
How long $1,000,000 lasts at each withdrawal rate
| Withdrawal rate | Per year | 10% of paths run out by | Half run out by | Lasts to 90 | Lasts to 95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $30,000 | past 100 | past 100 | 99% | 97% |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | 97 | past 100 | 97% | 92% |
| 4.0% | $40,000 | 91 | past 100 | 92% | 84% |
| 4.5% | $45,000 | 88 | past 100 | 84% | 75% |
| 5.0% | $50,000 | 85 | past 100 | 75% | 65% |
| 6.0% | $60,000 | 81 | 93 | 56% | 45% |
“10% of paths run out by” is the bad-luck age: one retiree in ten with this plan is broke by then. The fixed-return comparison in the answer above assumes the portfolio’s expected long-run return (6.1% a year, 4.0% after 2% inflation) arrives every year without variation; real markets do not, and losses early in retirement do the most damage. More on that in sequence-of-returns risk and the safe withdrawal rate calculator.
Not included: income tax on the withdrawals, fees, and any income besides the portfolio. If part of your spending is covered by Social Security or a pension, enter only the part your savings pay.
Test your own plan, free: the planner runs your savings, spending, Social Security and taxes year by year across thousands of market paths.
Run the free retirement planner →Common questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
Withdrawing $50,000 a year from 65, rising with inflation, it lasts to 90 in 77% of 10,000 market paths and to 95 in 67%, on the planner’s default assumptions (its forward-looking capital-market return set, Historical (1926-2025) volatilities, named on the methodology page), a 40/20/30/5/5 mix of US stocks, international stocks, bonds, real estate and cash, 2% inflation, every amount in today’s dollars, before income tax. At 4% ($40,000) it lasts longer; the table above has each rate from 3% to 6%.
How do I calculate how long my money will last?
With a fixed return the answer is a formula: years = −ln(1 − balance × r ÷ (withdrawal × (1 + r))) ÷ ln(1 + r). Markets do not deliver a fixed return, so the calculator runs 10,000 return paths and reports the age by which 10% and 50% of them have run out.
What withdrawal rate makes money last 30 years?
See the table above and the safe withdrawal rate calculator, which finds the rate for your horizon and success level on the same engine.
Does this include Social Security?
Not separately. Enter the withdrawal your savings must cover after Social Security and pensions. The free planner models Social Security and its start age directly.
Sources
The figures are QCMonteCarlo runs (frontend/js/calc/mc-plan.js), the browser copy of the planner’s C engine, held to it path for path; seed 42. The only source cited is the statute for the age rules mentioned; the return assumptions are the planner’s, named above. QuantCalc is calculation software, not tax, legal, insurance or investment advice.
Related
Safe withdrawal rate calculator → Withdrawal strategies lab → When can I retire? → Annuity payout calculator → Sequence-of-returns risk → How much do I need to retire? →