{ "version": "2026.1", "generated_at": "2026-09-08", "generated_by": "scripts/gen_one_more_year_study.mjs", "study": "work-one-more-year-vs-save-more-2026", "url": "https://quantcalc.app/research/work-one-more-year-vs-save-more-2026/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "method": { "engine": "QuantCalc C Monte Carlo engine (quantcalc-server 2.0.0), constant-real withdrawals over the public simulate contract", "capital_market_assumptions": { "source": "JPMorgan LTCMA 2026", "as_of": "2025-11-01", "asset_classes": [ "US Equity", "International Equity", "Bonds", "Real Estate", "Cash" ], "expected_returns": [ 0.067, 0.074, 0.048, 0.065, 0.032 ], "volatilities": [ 0.152, 0.18, 0.05, 0.15, 0.01 ] }, "plan": { "current_age": 60, "baseline_retirement_age": 65, "end_age": 95, "horizon_years": 35, "baseline_contribution": 30000, "social_security": 30000, "social_security_start_age": 67, "mix": { "key": "60/40", "allocation": [ 0.45, 0.15, 0.4, 0, 0 ] }, "inflation_rate": 0.025, "rebalance": "annual", "pension": 0, "taxes": "pre-tax" }, "personas": [ { "key": "A", "label": "Comfortable plan", "savings": 800000, "spend": 60000 }, { "key": "B", "label": "Marginal plan", "savings": 600000, "spend": 67000 } ], "arms": [ { "key": "retire_66", "lever": "work", "units": 1, "retire": 66, "contrib": 30000, "spend_delta": 0, "label": "Retire at 66 (one more year)" }, { "key": "retire_67", "lever": "work", "units": 2, "retire": 67, "contrib": 30000, "spend_delta": 0, "label": "Retire at 67 (two more years)" }, { "key": "save_40k", "lever": "save", "units": 1, "retire": 65, "contrib": 40000, "spend_delta": 0, "label": "Save $40,000 a year ($10,000 more)" }, { "key": "save_50k", "lever": "save", "units": 2, "retire": 65, "contrib": 50000, "spend_delta": 0, "label": "Save $50,000 a year ($20,000 more)" }, { "key": "spend_m5k", "lever": "spend", "units": 1, "retire": 65, "contrib": 30000, "spend_delta": -5000, "label": "Spend $5,000 a year less" }, { "key": "spend_m10k", "lever": "spend", "units": 2, "retire": 65, "contrib": 30000, "spend_delta": -10000, "label": "Spend $10,000 a year less" } ], "unit_definitions": { "work": "one year of retirement delay: one more year of contributions at the baseline rate and one fewer year of withdrawals; Social Security unchanged", "save": "$10,000 a year more contributed for the five working years ($50,000 in total)", "spend": "$5,000 a year less spent in every retirement year" }, "paths_per_arm": 10000, "pairing": "seed s with n ≤ 30 paths reads Sobol cache rows s..s+n−1 (random.c generate_sobol_normal offset = seed mod (rows − n + 1)); the 334 windows tile rows 0..9999 exactly; every arm shares the 60→95 horizon so the same rows are the same market draws", "paired_statistic": "per path: arm terminal real wealth − baseline terminal real wealth on the same market path; reported as median, p10, p90, mean, the share of paths where the arm ends higher, and survival crossovers", "per_unit_statistic": "success-rate difference against the baseline divided by the arm's unit count (years worked; $10,000-a-year saving steps; $5,000-a-year spending steps)", "dollars": "real (today's dollars); the engine deflates every reported value by its inflation path", "success": "a path counts as a success when the portfolio never reaches $0 during retirement; the terminal value of a ruined path is $0", "checks": { "zero_return_identities": { "max_abs_gap": 116.92064710718114, "tolerance": 500, "paths": 30, "cases": [ { "persona": "A", "retire_66_year6_diff": 90000, "retire_67_year7_diff": 90000, "save_40k_year5_diff": 50000, "spend_m5k_year6_diff": 5000, "ss_year8_change": -30000 }, { "persona": "B", "retire_66_year6_diff": 97000, "retire_67_year7_diff": 97000, "save_40k_year5_diff": 50000, "spend_m5k_year6_diff": 5000, "ss_year8_change": -37000 } ] }, "working_years_identity": [ { "persona": "A", "arm": "retire_66", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "retire_67", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "spend_m5k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "spend_m10k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "retire_67", "vs": "retire_66", "identical_years": 6, "differ_from_year": 7 }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "save_40k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 0, "differ_from_year": 1, "above_on_every_path": true }, { "persona": "A", "arm": "save_50k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 0, "differ_from_year": 1, "above_on_every_path": true }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "retire_66", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "retire_67", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "spend_m5k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "spend_m10k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "retire_67", "vs": "retire_66", "identical_years": 6, "differ_from_year": 7 }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "save_40k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 0, "differ_from_year": 1, "above_on_every_path": true }, { "persona": "B", "arm": "save_50k", "vs": "baseline", "identical_years": 0, "differ_from_year": 1, "above_on_every_path": true } ], "baseline_equals_itself": [ { "persona": "A", "share_tied": 1, "median_diff": 0 }, { "persona": "B", "share_tied": 1, "median_diff": 0 } ], "determinism": { "arm": "pA_retire_66", "seed": 330, "n": 30, "identical": true }, "engine_ruin_count_matches_terminal_gt_zero": true, "batched_equals_single_call": { "arms": 14, "max_gap": 0 }, "dominance": true } }, "personas": [ { "key": "A", "label": "Comfortable plan", "starting_savings": 800000, "annual_spending_real": 60000, "baseline": { "retirement_age": 65, "annual_contribution": 30000, "annual_spending_real": 60000, 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