{"title":"Will Your 2026 Tax Refund Be Bigger? The Same Household's 2025 and 2026 Tax, Federal and Every State","unit":"USD","taxYears":[2025,2026],"generator":"scripts/gen_refund_2025_vs_2026_study.mjs","engine":{"federal":"2.5.1","state":"1.21.2"},"license":"CC0-1.0","households":[{"id":"W1","label":"Single, 30, $50,000 of wages","input":{"filing":"single","age":30,"wages":50000},"pricedInEveryState":true},{"id":"W2","label":"Married couple, 45 and 43, $100,000 of wages, no children","input":{"filing":"mfj","age":45,"spouseAge":43,"wages":100000},"pricedInEveryState":true},{"id":"R1","label":"Single retiree, 68: $26,000 of Social Security + $24,000 of IRA withdrawals","input":{"filing":"single","age":68,"socialSecurity":26000,"iraDistributions":24000},"pricedInEveryState":true},{"id":"R2","label":"Retired couple, 67 and 65: $45,000 of Social Security + $60,000 of IRA withdrawals","input":{"filing":"mfj","age":67,"spouseAge":65,"socialSecurity":45000,"iraDistributions":60000},"pricedInEveryState":true},{"id":"F1","label":"Married couple, 40 and 38, two children under 17, $100,000 of wages","input":{"filing":"mfj","age":40,"spouseAge":38,"wages":100000,"childTaxCreditChildren":2,"eitcQualifyingChildren":2},"pricedInEveryState":false},{"id":"F2","label":"Single parent (head of household), 31, one child under 17, $32,000 of wages","input":{"filing":"hoh","age":31,"wages":32000,"childTaxCreditChildren":1,"eitcQualifyingChildren":1},"pricedInEveryState":false},{"id":"T1","label":"Tipped worker, single, 27: $38,000 of wages including $10,000 of qualified tips","input":{"filing":"single","age":27,"wages":38000,"qualifiedTips":10000},"pricedInEveryState":false},{"id":"O1","label":"Overtime worker, single, 35: $65,000 of wages including an $8,000 overtime premium","input":{"filing":"single","age":35,"wages":65000,"qualifiedOvertime":8000},"pricedInEveryState":false},{"id":"C1","label":"Single, 30, $50,000 of wages, $1,000 of cash gifts to charity (no itemizing)","input":{"filing":"single","age":30,"wages":50000,"charityCash":1000},"pricedInEveryState":false}],"notes":"Same income in both years. federal_refund_change = (federal_tax_2025 - refundable_credits_2025) - (federal_tax_2026 - refundable_credits_2026): > 0 = a bigger 2026 refund with the same withholding. state_tax_change = state_tax_2026 - state_tax_2025. total_refund_change = federal_refund_change - state_tax_change. 2026: household-tax-2026.js, re-derived through the C API; 2025: the C API with taxYear 2025.","tables":{"federal":{"columns":["household","federal_tax_2025","federal_tax_2026","refundable_credits_2025","refundable_credits_2026","federal_refund_change","taxable_ordinary_income_2025","taxable_ordinary_income_2026","senior_deduction_2025","senior_deduction_2026","tips_deduction_2025","tips_deduction_2026","overtime_deduction_2025","overtime_deduction_2026","earned_income_credit_2025","earned_income_credit_2026","nonitemizer_charity_deduction_2025","nonitemizer_charity_deduction_2026"],"rows":[["W1",3875,3823,0,0,52,34250,33900,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],["W2",7746,7643,0,0,103,68500,67800,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],["R1",733,693,0,0,40,7300,6900,6000,6000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],["R2",5712,5597,0,0,115,51550,50750,12000,12000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],["F1",3346,3243,0,0,103,68500,67800,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],["F2",0,0,4304,4539,235,8375,7850,0,0,0,0,0,0,2942,3127,0,0],["T1",1235,1193,0,0,42,12250,11900,0,0,10000,10000,0,0,0,0,0,0],["O1",4715,4663,0,0,52,41250,40900,0,0,0,0,8000,8000,0,0,0,0],["C1",3875,3703,0,0,172,34250,32900,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1000]]},"state":{"columns":["household","state","state_tax_2025","state_tax_2026","state_tax_change","federal_refund_change","total_refund_change"],"rows":[["W1","AK",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","AL",2068,2068,0,52,52],["W1","AR",1405,1363,-42,52,94],["W1","AZ",856.25,847.5,-8.75,52,60.75],["W1","CA",1040,973,-67,52,119],["W1","CO",1507,1489,-18,52,70],["W1","CT",1800,1800,0,52,52],["W1","DC",1902,1902,0,52,52],["W1","DE",2100,2100,0,52,52],["W1","FL",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","GA",1972,1746.5,-225.5,52,277.5],["W1","HI",2285,2026,-259,52,311],["W1","IA",1261.5,1248.2,-13.3,52,65.3],["W1","ID",1570.27,1544.99,-25.28,52,77.28],["W1","IL",2334,2330.21,-3.79,52,55.79],["W1","IN",2322.6,2303,-19.6,52,71.6],["W1","KS",1990,1990,0,52,52],["W1","KY",1869.2,1632.4,-236.8,52,288.8],["W1","LA",1125,1114.86,-10.14,52,62.14],["W1","MA",2180,2180,0,52,52],["W1","MD",3368.64,3364.08,-4.56,52,56.56],["W1","ME",1760,1700,-60,52,112],["W1","MI",1879,1874.25,-4.75,52,56.75],["W1","MN",1911,1880,-31,52,83],["W1","MO",1388,1367.89,-20.11,52,72.11],["W1","MS",1394.8,1268,-126.8,52,178.8],["W1","MT",1768,1593.3,-174.7,52,226.7],["W1","NC",1583.13,1486.28,-96.85,52,148.85],["W1","ND",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","NE",1503.84,1395.46,-108.38,52,160.39],["W1","NH",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","NJ",1216,1216,0,52,52],["W1","NM",1201,1182,-19,52,71],["W1","NV",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","NY",2147,2105,-42,52,94],["W1","OH",941.5,931.5,-10,52,62],["W1","OK",1839,1706,-133,52,185],["W1","OR",3218,3202,-16,52,68],["W1","PA",1535,1535,0,52,52],["W1","RI",1276,1259,-17,52,69],["W1","SC",1461,1001,-460,52,512],["W1","SD",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","TN",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","TX",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","UT",1718.23,1665.95,-52.28,52,104.28],["W1","VA",2061,2060.9,-0.1,52,52.1],["W1","VT",1241,1231,-10,52,62],["W1","WA",0,0,0,52,52],["W1","WI",1604,1578,-26,52,78],["W1","WV",1522,1445,-77,52,129],["W1","WY",0,0,0,52,52],["W2","AK",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","AL",4133,4138,5,103,98],["W2","AR",2810,2726,-84,103,187],["W2","AZ",1712.5,1695,-17.5,103,120.5],["W2","CA",2080,1946,-134,103,237],["W2","CO",3014,2983.2,-30.8,103,133.8],["W2","CT",3920,3920,0,103,103],["W2","DC",3804,3804,0,103,103],["W2","DE",4200,4200,0,103,103],["W2","FL",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","GA",3944,3493,-451,103,554],["W2","HI",4569,4050,-519,103,622],["W2","IA",2523,2496.4,-26.6,103,129.6],["W2","ID",3130.53,3079.97,-50.56,103,153.56],["W2","IL",4668,4660.43,-7.57,103,110.57],["W2","IN",4645.2,4606,-39.2,103,142.2],["W2","KS",3922,3922,0,103,103],["W2","KY",3738.4,3264.8,-473.6,103,576.6],["W2","LA",2250,2229.72,-20.28,103,123.28],["W2","MA",4360,4360,0,103,103],["W2","MD",6692.84,6681.16,-11.68,103,114.68],["W2","ME",3524,3397,-127,103,230],["W2","MI",3757,3748.5,-8.5,103,111.5],["W2","MN",3826,3756.16,-69.84,103,172.84],["W2","MO",2812,2771.73,-40.27,103,143.27],["W2","MS",2789.6,2536,-253.6,103,356.6],["W2","MT",3535,3186.6,-348.4,103,451.4],["W2","NC",3166.25,2972.55,-193.7,103,296.7],["W2","ND",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","NE",3007.74,2790.92,-216.82,103,319.82],["W2","NH",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","NJ",2641,2641,0,103,103],["W2","NM",2606,2573,-33,103,136],["W2","NV",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","NY",4284.75,4200.7,-84.05,103,187.05],["W2","OH",2157.57,2148.07,-9.5,103,112.5],["W2","OK",3676,3410,-266,103,369],["W2","OR",6445,6407.99,-37.01,103,140.01],["W2","PA",3070,3070,0,103,103],["W2","RI",2551,2517,-34,103,137],["W2","SC",3211,2615,-596,103,699],["W2","SD",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","TN",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","TX",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","UT",3436.46,3331.9,-104.56,103,207.56],["W2","VA",4120,4120.3,0.3,103,102.7],["W2","VT",2484,2464,-20,103,123],["W2","WA",0,0,0,103,103],["W2","WI",3389,3313,-76,103,179],["W2","WV",3790,3600,-190,103,293],["W2","WY",0,0,0,103,103],["R1","AK",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","AL",598,603,5,40,35],["R1","AR",125,125,0,40,40],["R1","AZ",3.75,0,-3.75,40,43.75],["R1","CA",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","CO",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","CT",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","DC",281,39,-242,40,282],["R1","DE",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","FL",0,0,0,40,40],["R1","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