{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-01",
  "engine": "ss-2033-cut-mc-1.0.0",
  "method": "Monte Carlo over normal real investment returns by allocation regime; 10,000 paths per cell. Retiree aged 65 in 2026, 30-year horizon, $60,000 real annual spending, portfolio sized to the 4% guideline on the initial income gap. Social Security reduced to 79% of scheduled (a ~21% cut) from 2034 in the cut scenario.",
  "scenarios": {
    "baseline": "Full scheduled Social Security",
    "cut": "Social Security reduced ~21% from 2034 (OASI depletion)"
  },
  "cut_factor": 0.79,
  "cut_first_year": 2034,
  "n_paths": 10000,
  "seed": 20260701,
  "headline": {
    "cell": "Balanced 60/40, 50% of spending from Social Security",
    "success_full_ss": 80.0,
    "success_after_cut": 66.2,
    "drop_pp": 13.8,
    "extra_savings_to_offset": 111101
  },
  "cells": [
    {
      "allocation": "conservative",
      "allocation_label": "Conservative (2% real, 6% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.3,
      "portfolio_start": 1050000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 18000,
      "success_full_ss": 63.8,
      "success_after_cut": 50.4,
      "drop_pp": 13.4,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 63858
    },
    {
      "allocation": "conservative",
      "allocation_label": "Conservative (2% real, 6% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.5,
      "portfolio_start": 750000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 30000,
      "success_full_ss": 63.6,
      "success_after_cut": 34.5,
      "drop_pp": 29.1,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 108442
    },
    {
      "allocation": "conservative",
      "allocation_label": "Conservative (2% real, 6% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.7,
      "portfolio_start": 450000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 42000,
      "success_full_ss": 64.4,
      "success_after_cut": 9.9,
      "drop_pp": 54.6,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 153318
    },
    {
      "allocation": "balanced",
      "allocation_label": "Balanced 60/40 (4% real, 11% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.3,
      "portfolio_start": 1050000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 18000,
      "success_full_ss": 78.9,
      "success_after_cut": 73.2,
      "drop_pp": 5.8,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 61728
    },
    {
      "allocation": "balanced",
      "allocation_label": "Balanced 60/40 (4% real, 11% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.5,
      "portfolio_start": 750000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 30000,
      "success_full_ss": 80.0,
      "success_after_cut": 66.2,
      "drop_pp": 13.8,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 111101
    },
    {
      "allocation": "balanced",
      "allocation_label": "Balanced 60/40 (4% real, 11% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.7,
      "portfolio_start": 450000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 42000,
      "success_full_ss": 79.5,
      "success_after_cut": 47.9,
      "drop_pp": 31.6,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 157392
    },
    {
      "allocation": "equity",
      "allocation_label": "Equity-tilted (6% real, 16% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.3,
      "portfolio_start": 1050000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 18000,
      "success_full_ss": 81.9,
      "success_after_cut": 78.4,
      "drop_pp": 3.5,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 62896
    },
    {
      "allocation": "equity",
      "allocation_label": "Equity-tilted (6% real, 16% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.5,
      "portfolio_start": 750000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 30000,
      "success_full_ss": 82.3,
      "success_after_cut": 73.5,
      "drop_pp": 8.9,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 121698
    },
    {
      "allocation": "equity",
      "allocation_label": "Equity-tilted (6% real, 16% vol)",
      "ss_reliance": 0.7,
      "portfolio_start": 450000,
      "annual_spending": 60000.0,
      "ss_benefit": 42000,
      "success_full_ss": 81.5,
      "success_after_cut": 61.2,
      "drop_pp": 20.3,
      "extra_savings_to_offset": 151633
    }
  ]
}