{
  "generated_at": "2026-06-02",
  "engine": "sequence-risk-mc-1.0.0",
  "method": "Block-bootstrap (5-yr blocks) Monte Carlo of 60/40 historical real returns 1928-2024; identical $1,000,000 start, 4% constant-real withdrawal ($40,000), 30-year horizon, withdrawal-at-start; 50,000 paths",
  "data_source": "Damodaran NYU Stern historical real returns (S&P 500 TR, 10y US Treasury TR, CPI-adjusted), 1928-2024; reconstructable from Shiller + FRED public data",
  "portfolio": {
    "equity": 0.6,
    "bond": 0.4,
    "rebalance": "annual"
  },
  "initial_balance": 1000000.0,
  "withdrawal_real": 40000.0,
  "withdrawal_rate": 0.04,
  "horizon_years": 30,
  "block_length": 5,
  "n_paths": 50000,
  "seed": 20260602,
  "historical_60_40_real_arith_mean": 0.0624,
  "historical_60_40_real_geo_mean": 0.054,
  "overall_failure_rate_pct": 6.02,
  "bottom_decile": {
    "first_decade_group": "bottom_decile",
    "n_paths": 5000,
    "mean_first_decade_cagr_pct": -0.77,
    "failure_rate_pct": 45.58,
    "median_terminal": 49522,
    "p10_terminal": 0,
    "p90_terminal": 857225
  },
  "top_decile": {
    "first_decade_group": "top_decile",
    "n_paths": 5000,
    "mean_first_decade_cagr_pct": 12.2,
    "failure_rate_pct": 0.0,
    "median_terminal": 5355467,
    "p10_terminal": 2404229,
    "p90_terminal": 11222737
  },
  "headline": {
    "bottom_decile_failure_pct": 45.58,
    "top_decile_failure_pct": 0.0,
    "failure_rate_multiple": null,
    "failure_rate_comparison": "effectively never fails in the top decile (0 of 5,000 paths)",
    "median_terminal_gap": 5305945,
    "bottom_decile_median_terminal": 49522,
    "top_decile_median_terminal": 5355467
  },
  "deterministic_two_retirees": {
    "bad_start_year": 1973,
    "good_start_year": 1982,
    "bad_terminal": 318030,
    "good_terminal": 5938578,
    "bad_failed": false,
    "good_failed": false,
    "bad_years_lasted": 30,
    "good_years_lasted": 30
  },
  "reversed_sequence_demo": {
    "window": "1973-2002",
    "arithmetic_mean_real": 0.0604,
    "geometric_mean_real": 0.0519,
    "forward_terminal": 318030,
    "forward_failed": false,
    "forward_years_lasted": 30,
    "reversed_terminal": 1960853,
    "reversed_failed": false,
    "reversed_years_lasted": 30
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "first_decade_group": "bottom_decile",
      "n_paths": 5000,
      "mean_first_decade_cagr_pct": -0.77,
      "failure_rate_pct": 45.58,
      "median_terminal": 49522,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p90_terminal": 857225
    },
    {
      "first_decade_group": "top_decile",
      "n_paths": 5000,
      "mean_first_decade_cagr_pct": 12.2,
      "failure_rate_pct": 0.0,
      "median_terminal": 5355467,
      "p10_terminal": 2404229,
      "p90_terminal": 11222737
    },
    {
      "first_decade_group": "all_paths",
      "n_paths": 50000,
      "mean_first_decade_cagr_pct": 5.58,
      "failure_rate_pct": 6.02,
      "median_terminal": 1823819,
      "p10_terminal": 199832,
      "p90_terminal": 5768001
    }
  ]
}