{ "version": "2026.1", "generated_at": "2026-07-21", "engine": "cohort-swr-1.0.0", "method": "Rolling historical cohort analysis. For each retirement start year with a full 30-year window, a rebalanced stock/bond portfolio is walked with a constant inflation-adjusted withdrawal taken at the start of each year; returns are real (nominal deflated by realized CPI). Stocks = S&P Composite total return (dividends reinvested); bonds = a constructed constant-maturity 10-year Treasury total return from GS10 yields. Results are historical outcomes, not forecasts.", "source": { "name": "Robert J. Shiller, \"Irrational Exuberance\" long-horizon dataset (ie_data.xls, Data sheet)", "url": "http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls", "retrieved": "2026-07-21", "snapshot": "research/data/shiller-annual-2026-07.csv" }, "horizon_years": 30, "withdrawal_rates_tested": [ 0.04, 0.045, 0.05 ], "allocations": { "60/40": 0.6, "50/50": 0.5, "80/20": 0.8 }, "headline_allocation": "60/40", "cohort_count": 123, "cohort_start_range": [ 1871, 1993 ], "aggregates": { "60/40": { "worst_year": 1966, "worst_swr": 3.69, "best_year": 1982, "best_swr": 10.64, "median_swr": 6.15, "mean_swr": 6.44, "survival": { "0.04": 95.9, "0.045": 89.4, "0.05": 74.8 } }, "50/50": { "worst_year": 1966, "worst_swr": 3.63, "best_year": 1982, "best_swr": 10.34, "median_swr": 5.93, "mean_swr": 6.16, "survival": { "0.04": 95.1, "0.045": 83.7, "0.05": 69.9 } }, "80/20": { "worst_year": 1966, "worst_swr": 3.77, "best_year": 1921, "best_swr": 11.23, "median_swr": 6.59, "mean_swr": 6.96, "survival": { "0.04": 96.7, "0.045": 91.9, "0.05": 79.7 } } }, "cohorts": [ { "start_year": 1871, "max_swr_60/40": 8.89, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 8.8, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 9.05, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1872, "max_swr_60/40": 8.81, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 8.78, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 8.82, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1873, "max_swr_60/40": 9.04, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 9.06, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 8.94, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1874, "max_swr_60/40": 9.3, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 9.24, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 9.36, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1875, "max_swr_60/40": 8.87, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 8.77, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 9.01, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1876, "max_swr_60/40": 8.5, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 8.36, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 8.71, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1877, "max_swr_60/40": 9.89, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 9.5, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 10.62, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1878, "max_swr_60/40": 9.01, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 8.56, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 9.89, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1879, "max_swr_60/40": 7.81, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.46, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 8.51, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1880, "max_swr_60/40": 7.65, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.52, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 7.89, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1881, "max_swr_60/40": 6.5, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.47, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.5, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1882, "max_swr_60/40": 7.27, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.21, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 7.35, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1883, "max_swr_60/40": 7.32, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.24, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 7.42, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1884, "max_swr_60/40": 7.31, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.16, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 7.57, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1885, "max_swr_60/40": 7.37, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 7.07, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 7.95, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1886, "max_swr_60/40": 6.29, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.14, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.56, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1887, "max_swr_60/40": 6.11, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.0, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.29, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1888, "max_swr_60/40": 6.65, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.49, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.92, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1889, "max_swr_60/40": 6.36, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.18, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.67, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1890, "max_swr_60/40": 5.95, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.78, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.24, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1891, "max_swr_60/40": 6.48, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 6.22, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.95, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1892, "max_swr_60/40": 5.58, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.41, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 5.87, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1893, "max_swr_60/40": 5.92, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.74, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.21, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1894, "max_swr_60/40": 5.9, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.56, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.56, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1895, "max_swr_60/40": 5.62, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.26, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.33, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1896, "max_swr_60/40": 5.69, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.31, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.44, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1897, "max_swr_60/40": 5.53, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.13, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 6.34, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1898, "max_swr_60/40": 5.2, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 4.87, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 5.86, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1899, "max_swr_60/40": 4.58, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 0, "max_swr_50/50": 4.35, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 0, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 5.01, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1900, "max_swr_60/40": 5.37, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.09, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 1, "max_swr_80/20": 5.9, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1901, "max_swr_60/40": 4.8, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 0, "max_swr_50/50": 4.6, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 5.16, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1902, "max_swr_60/40": 4.52, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 0, "max_swr_50/50": 4.39, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 0, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 4.75, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 0 }, { "start_year": 1903, "max_swr_60/40": 4.82, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 0, "max_swr_50/50": 4.69, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 5.02, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1904, "max_swr_60/40": 5.25, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 1, "max_swr_50/50": 5.0, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 5.72, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 1 }, { "start_year": 1905, "max_swr_60/40": 4.65, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 1, "survived_50_60/40": 0, "max_swr_50/50": 4.52, "survived_40_50/50": 1, "survived_45_50/50": 1, "survived_50_50/50": 0, "max_swr_80/20": 4.85, "survived_40_80/20": 1, "survived_45_80/20": 1, "survived_50_80/20": 0 }, { "start_year": 1906, "max_swr_60/40": 4.2, "survived_40_60/40": 1, "survived_45_60/40": 0, "survived_50_60/40": 0, 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