{ "version": "2026.1", "generated_at": "2026-09-07", "generated_by": "scripts/gen_household_claiming_study.mjs", "study": "household-social-security-claiming-2026", "url": "https://quantcalc.app/research/household-social-security-claiming-2026/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "method": { "engine": "QuantCalc C Monte Carlo engine (quantcalc-server 2.0.0), household model (user + spouse Social Security, larger-of-the-two survivor rule) over the public simulate contract", "capital_market_assumptions": { "source": "JPMorgan LTCMA 2026", "as_of": "2025-11-01", "asset_classes": [ "US Equity", "International Equity", "Bonds", "Real Estate", "Cash" ], "expected_returns": [ 0.067, 0.074, 0.048, 0.065, 0.032 ], "volatilities": [ 0.152, 0.18, 0.05, 0.15, 0.01 ] }, "plan": { "capital": 1000000, "current_age": 62, "retirement_age": 62, "end_age": 95, "horizon_years": 33, "spending_annual_real": 60000, "allocation": [ 0.45, 0.15, 0.4, 0, 0 ], "mix": "60/40", "inflation_rate": 0.025, "pension": 0, "taxes": "none applied to benefits or withdrawals in this mode" }, "personas": [ { "key": "A", "name": "Persona A", "higher_pia": 3000, "lower_pia": 1500 }, { "key": "B", "name": "Persona B", "higher_pia": 2500, "lower_pia": 800 } ], "claim_ages": [ 62, 67, 70 ], "full_retirement_age": 67, "claiming_factors": { "62": 0.7000000000000001, "67": 1, "70": 1.24 }, "baseline": { "lower_age": 67, "higher_age": 67 }, "roles": "engine user = lower earner, engine spouse = higher earner; spouseDeathAge is the user's age when the spouse dies, both are the same age, so the higher earner dies at 80", "benefits": "each earner's benefit is sent AT CLAIM = PIA × the app's claiming-age factor (frontend/js/ss-claiming.js), in today's dollars, raised with the plan's inflation rate (a full cost-of-living adjustment); the engine adds benefits gross — no tax on benefits or withdrawals in this mode", "survivor_rule": "after the death month the household keeps the LARGER of the two benefits (monte_carlo.c household_month_w); no spousal top-up is modelled at any point", "survivor_sensitivity": { "higher_earner_death_age": 80, "survivor_spending_pct": 100 }, "paths_per_arm": 10000, "pairing": "seed s with n ≤ 30 paths reads Sobol cache rows s..s+n−1 (random.c generate_sobol_normal offset = seed mod (rows − n + 1)); the 334 windows tile rows 0..9999 exactly", "paired_statistic": "per path: this cell's terminal real wealth − the both-at-67 cell's terminal real wealth on the same market path (same death assumption); reported as median, p10, p90, mean, and the share of paths where this cell ends higher; survivor cells are additionally paired against their own no-death twin", "lifetime_benefit": "deterministic sum of the monthly household benefit from 62 to 95 in today's dollars, computed from the same schedule the engine is given (household_month restated), with the larger-of-the-two rule after the death where a death is modelled", "dollars": "real (today's dollars); the engine deflates every reported value by its inflation path", "success": "a path counts as a success when the portfolio never reaches $0 before 95; the terminal value of a ruined path is $0", "checks": { "factors_match_app": { "62": 0.7000000000000001, "67": 1, "70": 1.24 }, "baseline_equals_itself": { "pA_l67_h67": { "max_abs_diff": 0, "share_tied": 1 }, "pA_l67_h67_d80": { "max_abs_diff": 0, "share_tied": 1 }, "pB_l67_h67": { "max_abs_diff": 0, "share_tied": 1 }, "pB_l67_h67_d80": { "max_abs_diff": 0, "share_tied": 1 } }, "pre_claim_identity": [ { "persona": "A", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 }, { "persona": "B", "identical_years": 5, "differ_from_year": 6 } ], "role_swap_identity": { "cell": "pA_l62_h70", "identical": true }, "small_batch_identities": [ { "seed": 0, "n": 30, "household_sum": true, "zero_spouse": true, "death_zero_benefit": true }, { "seed": 30, "n": 30, "household_sum": true, "zero_spouse": true, "death_zero_benefit": true }, { "seed": 60, "n": 30, "household_sum": true, "zero_spouse": true, "death_zero_benefit": true } ], "determinism": { "arm": "pA_l62_h70", "seed": 210, "n": 30, "identical": true }, "engine_ruin_count_matches_terminal_gt_zero": true, "batched_equals_single_call": { "arms": 36, "max_gap": 0 }, "survivor_twins": [ { "cell": "pA_l62_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l62_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l62_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l67_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l67_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l67_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l70_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l70_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pA_l70_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l62_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l62_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l62_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l67_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l67_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l67_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l70_h62_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l70_h67_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 }, { "cell": "pB_l70_h70_d80", "identical_years": 18, "differ_from_year": 19 } ], "starting_wealth_identical": true } }, "cells": [ { "persona": "A", "higher_pia": 3000, "lower_pia": 1500, "lower_claim_age": 62, "higher_claim_age": 62, "same_age": true, "higher_earner_death_age": null, "survivor_spending_pct": null, "is_baseline": false, "schedule": { "lower_monthly": 1050, "higher_monthly": 2100, "lower_factor": 0.7000000000000001, "higher_factor": 0.7000000000000001, "household_monthly_both_claiming": 3150, "survivor_monthly": 2100, "lifetime_real": 1247400, "lifetime_lower": 415800, "lifetime_higher": 831600, "cumulative_by_age": [ { "age": 63, "cumulative": 37800 }, { "age": 64, "cumulative": 75600 }, { "age": 65, "cumulative": 113400 }, { "age": 66, "cumulative": 151200 }, { "age": 67, "cumulative": 189000 }, { "age": 68, "cumulative": 226800 }, { "age": 69, "cumulative": 264600 }, { "age": 70, "cumulative": 302400 }, { "age": 71, "cumulative": 340200 }, { "age": 72, "cumulative": 378000 }, { "age": 73, "cumulative": 415800 }, { "age": 74, "cumulative": 453600 }, { "age": 75, "cumulative": 491400 }, { "age": 76, "cumulative": 529200 }, { "age": 77, "cumulative": 567000 }, { "age": 78, "cumulative": 604800 }, { "age": 79, "cumulative": 642600 }, { "age": 80, "cumulative": 680400 }, { "age": 81, "cumulative": 718200 }, { "age": 82, "cumulative": 756000 }, { "age": 83, 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