{
  "generated_at": "2026-06-05",
  "engine": "QuantCalc C Monte Carlo (same engine as the live calculator), via POST /api/simulate",
  "paths_per_scenario": 10000,
  "scenarios": 6,
  "retiree": {
    "current_age": 60,
    "retirement_age": 60,
    "life_expectancy": 95,
    "current_savings": 1200000,
    "monthly_contribution": 0,
    "annual_spending": 66000,
    "social_security": 22000,
    "ss_start_age": 67,
    "pension": 0,
    "pension_start_age": 65,
    "inflation_rate": 0.027,
    "num_simulations": 10000,
    "seed": 42,
    "useQMC": true
  },
  "asset_universe": [
    {
      "label": "US Stocks",
      "nominal_return": 0.07,
      "volatility": 0.165
    },
    {
      "label": "Intl Stocks",
      "nominal_return": 0.075,
      "volatility": 0.18
    },
    {
      "label": "US Bonds",
      "nominal_return": 0.045,
      "volatility": 0.06
    },
    {
      "label": "Real Estate",
      "nominal_return": 0.065,
      "volatility": 0.19
    },
    {
      "label": "Cash",
      "nominal_return": 0.035,
      "volatility": 0.01
    },
    {
      "label": "Gold",
      "nominal_return": 0.05,
      "volatility": 0.15
    },
    {
      "label": "Commodities",
      "nominal_return": 0.055,
      "volatility": 0.17
    },
    {
      "label": "TIPS",
      "nominal_return": 0.04,
      "volatility": 0.055
    },
    {
      "label": "Bitcoin",
      "nominal_return": 0.12,
      "volatility": 0.65
    }
  ],
  "baseline_allocation": {
    "US Stocks": 40,
    "Intl Stocks": 20,
    "US Bonds": 30,
    "Real Estate": 5,
    "Cash": 5
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "scenario": "baseline",
      "title": "Baseline (no alternatives)",
      "n_assets": 5,
      "roster": "US Stocks 40%, Intl Stocks 20%, US Bonds 30%, Real Estate 5%, Cash 5%",
      "success_rate": 72.34,
      "median_terminal": 636995,
      "mean_terminal": 1265382,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 0,
      "p90_terminal": 3333387
    },
    {
      "scenario": "gold10",
      "title": "+10% Gold",
      "n_assets": 6,
      "roster": "US Stocks 36.0%, Intl Stocks 18.0%, US Bonds 27.0%, Real Estate 4.5%, Cash 4.5%, Gold 10%",
      "success_rate": 73.65,
      "median_terminal": 634133,
      "mean_terminal": 1179487,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 0,
      "p90_terminal": 3076580
    },
    {
      "scenario": "commod10",
      "title": "+10% Commodities",
      "n_assets": 6,
      "roster": "US Stocks 36.0%, Intl Stocks 18.0%, US Bonds 27.0%, Real Estate 4.5%, Cash 4.5%, Commodities 10%",
      "success_rate": 73.3,
      "median_terminal": 650837,
      "mean_terminal": 1254006,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 0,
      "p90_terminal": 3270455
    },
    {
      "scenario": "tips10",
      "title": "+10% TIPS",
      "n_assets": 6,
      "roster": "US Stocks 36.0%, Intl Stocks 18.0%, US Bonds 27.0%, Real Estate 4.5%, Cash 4.5%, TIPS 10%",
      "success_rate": 71.25,
      "median_terminal": 524270,
      "mean_terminal": 1036829,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 0,
      "p90_terminal": 2754923
    },
    {
      "scenario": "btc5",
      "title": "+5% Bitcoin",
      "n_assets": 6,
      "roster": "US Stocks 38.0%, Intl Stocks 19.0%, US Bonds 28.5%, Real Estate 4.8%, Cash 4.8%, Bitcoin 5%",
      "success_rate": 84.97,
      "median_terminal": 1621123,
      "mean_terminal": 2738191,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 428745,
      "p90_terminal": 6635908
    },
    {
      "scenario": "sleeve20",
      "title": "Diversified 20% alt sleeve",
      "n_assets": 9,
      "roster": "US Stocks 32.0%, Intl Stocks 16.0%, US Bonds 24.0%, Real Estate 4.0%, Cash 4.0%, Gold 5%, Commodities 5%, TIPS 8%, Bitcoin 2%",
      "success_rate": 79.85,
      "median_terminal": 886380,
      "mean_terminal": 1457742,
      "p10_terminal": 0,
      "p25_terminal": 134451,
      "p90_terminal": 3702802
    }
  ],
  "deltas_vs_baseline": [
    {
      "scenario": "gold10",
      "title": "+10% Gold",
      "d_success_pp": 1.31,
      "d_median_pct": -0.45,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    },
    {
      "scenario": "commod10",
      "title": "+10% Commodities",
      "d_success_pp": 0.96,
      "d_median_pct": 2.17,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    },
    {
      "scenario": "tips10",
      "title": "+10% TIPS",
      "d_success_pp": -1.09,
      "d_median_pct": -17.7,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    },
    {
      "scenario": "btc5",
      "title": "+5% Bitcoin",
      "d_success_pp": 12.63,
      "d_median_pct": 154.5,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    },
    {
      "scenario": "sleeve20",
      "title": "Diversified 20% alt sleeve",
      "d_success_pp": 7.51,
      "d_median_pct": 39.15,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    }
  ],
  "headline": {
    "baseline_success": 72.34,
    "baseline_median_terminal": 636995,
    "baseline_p10_terminal": 0,
    "best_for_success": {
      "scenario": "btc5",
      "title": "+5% Bitcoin",
      "d_success_pp": 12.63,
      "d_median_pct": 154.5,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    },
    "best_diversifier_ex_btc": {
      "scenario": "sleeve20",
      "title": "Diversified 20% alt sleeve",
      "d_success_pp": 7.51,
      "d_median_pct": 39.15,
      "d_p25_pct": null
    }
  }
}