{
  "meta": {
    "engine": "aca-cliff-mc-2.0.0",
    "generated_utc": "2026-07-07T13:08:47+00:00",
    "generated_by": "research/aca_cliff/compute.py",
    "note": "Rebuild of the /research/aca-cliff-2026/ study engine. The original engine was never committed to the repo AND used an expired 8.5% ACA applicable percentage. This engine is committed, seeded, and uses the correct 2026 applicable percentage (9.96%, IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25). Published figures WILL differ from the prior ($87k/$91k/$213k/$207k) numbers as a result \u2014 that is the intended correction.",
    "seed": 20260411,
    "n_paths_per_profile_per_behavior": 10000,
    "n_years": 10,
    "bridge_age": "55 -> 65",
    "sources": {
      "federal_tax_2026": "IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (post-OBBBA TY2026 brackets, standard deduction, LTCG breakpoints) via tools/cws_sync_tax_data.py",
      "aca_fpl_2026": "HHS Jan-2025 poverty guidelines (govern ACA coverage year 2026) via tools/cws_sync_tax_data.py",
      "slcsp": "KFF Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator, national averages",
      "aca_applicable_pct_400fpl": "IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25, 2026 coverage year (post-enhanced-subsidy-expiration formula)"
    }
  },
  "constants": {
    "fpl400": {
      "1": 62600,
      "2": 84600
    },
    "slcsp": {
      "1": 14400,
      "2": 28800
    },
    "applicable_pct_400fpl": 0.0996,
    "inflation": 0.025,
    "account_mix": {
      "trad": 0.6,
      "roth": 0.15,
      "tax": 0.25
    },
    "taxable_basis_frac": 0.5,
    "allocation": {
      "us_equity": 0.45,
      "intl_equity": 0.15,
      "bonds": 0.3,
      "real_estate": 0.05,
      "cash": 0.05
    },
    "asset_mean_real": {
      "us_equity": 0.07,
      "intl_equity": 0.07,
      "bonds": 0.02,
      "real_estate": 0.055,
      "cash": 0.005
    },
    "asset_vol_real": {
      "us_equity": 0.18,
      "intl_equity": 0.19,
      "bonds": 0.07,
      "real_estate": 0.17,
      "cash": 0.015
    }
  },
  "sanity_checks": {
    "naive_pct_cliff_years_1_3_near_100pct": true,
    "optimized_pct_cliff_years_1_3_low": true,
    "value_of_planning_positive_all_profiles": true,
    "singles_value_of_planning_range": [
      77443.8010140639,
      85833.3816560643
    ],
    "couples_value_of_planning_range": [
      197661.78791572686,
      213289.55706495233
    ],
    "underfunded_path_years_total": 31
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "id": "A",
      "name": "Single Lean FIRE",
      "n_people": 1,
      "portfolio": 1200000,
      "spend": 60000,
      "behaviors": {
        "naive": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 1.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 1.0,
          "mean_total_repayment": 88618.45701881695,
          "median_total_repayment": 91476.06026980112,
          "underfunded_path_years": 10
        },
        "optimized": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 0.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 0.6167,
          "mean_total_repayment": 11174.656004753055,
          "median_total_repayment": 10197.016104141487,
          "underfunded_path_years": 10
        }
      },
      "value_of_planning": 77443.8010140639
    },
    {
      "id": "B",
      "name": "Single Comfortable",
      "n_people": 1,
      "portfolio": 2000000,
      "spend": 85000,
      "behaviors": {
        "naive": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 1.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 1.0,
          "mean_total_repayment": 90760.7362833631,
          "median_total_repayment": 91476.06026980112,
          "underfunded_path_years": 1
        },
        "optimized": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 0.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 0.317,
          "mean_total_repayment": 4927.354627298807,
          "median_total_repayment": 0.0,
          "underfunded_path_years": 1
        }
      },
      "value_of_planning": 85833.3816560643
    },
    {
      "id": "C",
      "name": "Couple Chubby FIRE",
      "n_people": 2,
      "portfolio": 1800000,
      "spend": 80000,
      "behaviors": {
        "naive": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 1.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 1.0,
          "mean_total_repayment": 226229.57525906802,
          "median_total_repayment": 228255.90759718083,
          "underfunded_path_years": 1
        },
        "optimized": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 0.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 0.3403,
          "mean_total_repayment": 12940.018194115704,
          "median_total_repayment": 0.0,
          "underfunded_path_years": 1
        }
      },
      "value_of_planning": 213289.55706495233
    },
    {
      "id": "D",
      "name": "Couple High Spend",
      "n_people": 2,
      "portfolio": 2500000,
      "spend": 120000,
      "behaviors": {
        "naive": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 1.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 1.0,
          "mean_total_repayment": 224497.0039263007,
          "median_total_repayment": 228255.90759718083,
          "underfunded_path_years": 3
        },
        "optimized": {
          "pct_cliff_years_1_3": 0.0,
          "pct_ever_crossed": 0.5859,
          "mean_total_repayment": 26835.216010573833,
          "median_total_repayment": 25444.13433163854,
          "underfunded_path_years": 4
        }
      },
      "value_of_planning": 197661.78791572686
    }
  ]
}