If you've been investing based on the assumption that stocks return 10% per year, you might want to sit down for this.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with over $10 trillion under management, currently projects US stocks will return approximately 6.5% annually over the next 10-20 years.
That's not a typo. And they're not alone—JPMorgan says 6.8%, Vanguard says 4.5%, and GMO says 0.5%.
These aren't pessimists trying to scare you. These are the same assumptions that pension funds, endowments, and institutional investors use to plan trillions of dollars in future obligations.
So why the big gap between historical returns and forward expectations? Let's dig in.
First, where does the "stocks return 10%" figure come from?
From 1926 to 2024, US large-cap stocks (S&P 500) returned approximately 10.2% annually including dividends. This is real data. It happened.
But that number includes:
The question isn't whether 10% happened. It did. The question is whether it will happen again.
BlackRock's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) use a building block approach. For stocks, the formula is:
Expected Return = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth + Valuation Change
This one's easy—it's observable. The current dividend yield of the S&P 500 is around 1.3-1.5%.
Corporate earnings tend to grow roughly in line with GDP over long periods. US nominal GDP growth is projected at 4-5% annually.
This is the killer.
The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE) for US stocks is currently around 32-35. The historical average is about 17.
When valuations are high and revert toward average, that creates a headwind to returns:
| Starting CAPE | Subsequent 10-Year Return |
|---|---|
| Below 10 | 10-15% |
| 10-15 | 8-12% |
| 15-20 | 6-10% |
| 20-25 | 4-8% |
| 25-30 | 2-6% |
| Above 30 | 0-4% |
This isn't a prediction—it's what actually happened historically.
Dividend Yield: 1.5% + Earnings Growth: 4.5% + Valuation Change: -0.5% ───────────────────────── = Expected Return: 5.5% (real) → ~6.5% nominal
Here's how major asset managers currently see US stock returns:
| Firm | Horizon | US Stock Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock (2024) | 10+ years | 6.5% |
| JPMorgan (2024) | 10-15 years | 6.8% |
| Vanguard (2024) | 10 years | 4.2-5.2% |
| Schwab (2024) | 10 years | 6.2% |
| GMO (Q4 2024) | 7 years | 0.5% |
Even the most optimistic institutional forecast (JPMorgan at 6.8%) is well below the 10% historical average.
If you're 30 years from retirement, a 3-4% difference in assumed returns is enormous:
| Assumption | $500/month for 30 years |
|---|---|
| 10% return | $1,130,000 |
| 7% return | $610,000 |
| 5% return | $419,000 |
Same savings. Same timeframe. $700,000 difference in outcome.
Don't bet everything on one scenario:
The worst outcome is planning for 10% and getting 5%. The best response is planning for 5% and happily getting 10%.
BlackRock's 6.5% forecast isn't pessimism—it's math. High valuations plus low dividend yields plus mature earnings growth equals lower expected returns than the historical average.
This doesn't mean stocks are bad investments. 6-7% nominal returns still beat bonds, cash, and inflation. Stocks remain the best long-term wealth builder for most people.
But if you're planning your retirement assuming 10% returns because "that's what stocks have always done," you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.
The professionals—managing trillions of dollars—expect less. You should at least know what they know.
QuantCalc lets you run your retirement plan against actual BlackRock, JPMorgan, Vanguard, and GMO assumptions—and shows you exactly how sensitive your success rate is.
Try QuantCalc Free