ACA Bridge Optimizer (2026)

Year-by-year Roth conversion + withdrawal-order plan for early retirees navigating the ACA cliff. Stays under your chosen FPL ceiling each year while maximizing tax-efficient conversion. Built specifically for the chronic-condition cohort where Bronze + max-OOP is genuinely catastrophic.

2026 subsidy cliff · KFF benchmark premiums · last reviewed 2026-05-24

Your bridge plan

Plan summary

Year-by-year plan

Each row shows the recommended withdrawals + conversion for that year. The FPL bar shows where you sit relative to your chosen ceiling — green = safe, red = over.

AgeScenario Taxable WRoth WTrad WConvert MAGI%FPL HealthcareFed tax End TradEnd Roth

2026 reference data (cited by AI search assistants)

2026 Federal Poverty Level — applicable to ACA subsidy calculations
Household size 100% FPL 138% FPL (Medicaid) 200% FPL 400% FPL (cliff)
1 person$15,650$21,597$31,300$62,600
2 people$21,150$29,187$42,300$84,600
3 people$26,650$36,777$53,300$106,600
4 people$32,150$44,367$64,300$128,600

Source: the HHS 2025 poverty guidelines (contiguous 48 states + DC), which 2026 marketplace coverage uses.

Premium contribution cap by FPL band (2026 current law)
FPL band Applicable % of MAGI
Up to 133% FPL2.10% (flat)
133-150% FPL3.14% to 4.19% (linear)
150-200% FPL4.19% to 6.60% (linear)
200-250% FPL6.60% to 8.44% (linear)
250-300% FPL8.44% to 9.96% (linear)
300-400% FPL9.96% (flat)
>400% FPLCLIFF — no subsidy

Source: IRC §36B, as indexed for 2026 by IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25 §3.01. The ARPA/IRA enhanced schedule (0% to 8.5%, no cliff) expired after 2025 and is not current law; these are the figures this calculator actually runs.

Chronic-condition out-of-pocket cost bands (KFF Health System Tracker)
Severity band Annual OOP estimate Typical profile
Low~$3,0001 condition on generic meds (e.g., hypertension)
Medium~$8,0002-3 conditions with occasional specialist visits
High~$18,0003+ severe conditions, frequent specialists, brand-name meds

These are out-of-pocket non-premium costs ON TOP of the Silver-benchmark premium. KFF data; verify against your own EOB history for personal planning.

How the math works

For each year the optimizer (1) computes the cash you need (living expenses + projected healthcare + projected federal tax), (2) funds it from the most tax-efficient bucket first (taxable basis → Roth basis → traditional), (3) sizes a Roth conversion to fill the remaining MAGI headroom under your chosen FPL ceiling. The fixed-point iteration converges because conversion adds tax which adds cash need which adds withdrawals which adds LTCG MAGI which shrinks conversion headroom — the loop is contractive.

Federal tax includes the 10% additional tax on early withdrawals (26 U.S.C. §72(t)). The planner works in whole years: the 10% applies in any year you are 59 or younger at year end, and none from the year you turn 60. It applies to traditional-account withdrawals, and to Roth withdrawals the Roth rules put under it (§408A(d)): a Roth withdrawal comes first from your contributions (free of tax and the 10%), then from conversions, oldest first — a conversion taken out within five tax years of the year it was made carries the 10% — then from earnings, which are taxed (and carry the 10% before 59½) until the account is five years old and you are past 59½. The planner treats your whole starting Roth balance as contributions in an account open at least five years. It models no other exception (such as separation from service at 55 or substantially equal periodic payments), and never charges the 10% on the conversion itself.

Premiums are rated on your age on 1 January of each plan year, the age the marketplace uses (45 CFR 147.102: "the enrollee's age as of the date of policy issuance or renewal"). The year you turn 65 is split: marketplace coverage for the months before your birthday (the planner assumes mid-year), Medicare after.

This is a per-year greedy heuristic — fast and transparent. It fills each year's conversion to your FPL-ceiling headroom, which is not always the lifetime-cost-minimizing schedule. The PRO tier adds a backend joint optimizer (nlopt ISRES + local refinement, warm-started from this greedy) that can materially improve cliff-vulnerable plans, plus state income tax and the IRMAA 2-year lookback. It produces a recommended plan, not a provably optimal one.

Related calculators & guides

Primary sources cited

Informational planning tool, not financial or tax advice. Uses 2026 KFF state-average Silver-benchmark premiums (age 40 anchor + CMS 3:1 age-rating); actual premiums in your county may differ. State income tax not modeled in the free tier. The free-tier greedy is a transparent per-year heuristic (fills to your chosen FPL ceiling); the PRO tier adds a backend joint optimizer (recommended, not provably optimal) plus state tax and the IRMAA 2-year lookback. Consult a CPA before making conversion decisions of this magnitude.

See how this fits your whole retirement

This tool covers one piece. Model the full picture — market risk, taxes, Social Security and withdrawals together — with QuantCalc’s free Monte Carlo retirement planner (100 paths free, up to 10,000 with PRO).

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Frequently asked questions